Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Miami +2½ over Cleveland

Cleveland Browns Stadium – Cleveland, OH

1:00 PM ET. Cleveland has lost three straight, ranks dead last in scoring offense, and just put up nine points at home in a divisional game. Miami is 1-5, yes, but they’ve covered three of their last four, have shown life offensively, and have at least looked like a professional football team. The market still insists on making Cleveland the favorite. Why? Because the Dolphins are “a mess,” Tua apologized, and the media framed this week as a leadership crisis. That’s surface-level noise — and it’s masking value.

Let’s strip it down to what matters. Dillon Gabriel is a rookie quarterback on a team averaging 13.7 points per game. He’s been sacked 12 times over the last two weeks. The Browns’ offensive line is crumbling, the play-calling is desperate, and the so-called “home-field advantage” has meant nothing — Cleveland is 1-6 ATS in its last seven at home. Now they’re being asked to win by a field goal against a Dolphins team that still has speed, balance, and big-play potential. No thanks.

The market doesn’t want Miami. That’s our cue. Tua’s apology made headlines, but it also signaled accountability — not collapse. Miami’s offense has quietly moved the ball, putting up 27 points against a strong Chargers defense and topping 20 in four straight. De’Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle are producing, Darren Waller has been a stabilizing presence, and this team hasn’t quit on their coach.

Meanwhile, Cleveland’s been outscored 78–36 over the last three weeks. The defense looks tired, the offense looks broken, and now Myles Garrett is less than 100 percent. That’s not the profile of a team you lay points with.

We’ll gladly grab the short number with the team that can actually score. Miami’s defense may not be elite, but Cleveland’s offense doesn’t threaten anyone. The Dolphins don’t even need to be sharp — they just need to play their usual B-minus game and let Cleveland self-destruct.

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