Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Indianapolis +115 over L.A. Chargers

SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, CA

4:25 PM ET. Let’s start with the obvious: the Chargers are 4-2, but they’ve trailed in the fourth quarter of five games. Last week they needed a field goal with five seconds left to beat Miami, who gift-wrapped the game with penalties and a red-zone turnover. That’s Los Angeles football under Jim Harbaugh — smoke, mirrors, and a whole lot of “what ifs.” The Bolts have a soft record built on weak execution by their opponents, not their own strength.

Now they’re laying points with a patchwork offensive line that’s missing its cornerstone left tackle (Joe Alt) and relying on two replacement-level tackles who were both on practice squads this time last year. Herbert has been sacked 17 times already — sixth most in the NFL — and now faces a Colts defense that disguises pressure as well as anyone. Lou Anarumo’s scheme is a nightmare for a banged-up line, and the Chargers haven’t seen anything like it since Week 1 in Brazil.

Indianapolis has done what good teams do — beat who’s in front of them. They’re 5-1 because their offense has been balanced, their protection solid, and Daniel Jones hasn’t made the big mistake. Jonathan Taylor’s resurgence is real, but the story here is the Colts’ O-line, which has allowed the fewest quarterback hits in the league. That’s the kind of protection that travels.

Yes, the Colts’ secondary is thin, and yes, Herbert might make a few highlight throws. The problem is, Los Angeles can’t run the ball to save its life, which means Herbert is asked to do everything behind a collapsing line. That’s a bad equation for any favorite.

Market perception still gives the Chargers too much credit because of the logo and the quarterback, not the results. They’re 0-3 ATS at home this season and have covered just twice in their last nine games as a favorite. Meanwhile, the Colts have quietly been one of the best first-half teams in football — meaning they start fast, and Harbaugh’s group will be chasing.

Oddsmakers hung this short line to tempt the same crowd that keeps backing the Chargers because “they’re due.” They’ve been due for about 25 years. The Colts, meanwhile, are cohesive, confident, and unafraid to line up and punch you in the mouth.

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