Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

New York Jets -105 over Carolina

MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, NJ

1:00 PM ET. The Panthers have won back-to-back games at home, and the market is tripping over itself to believe that means something. Let’s slow down. Carolina’s “streak” came against Miami and Dallas — two teams that have been giving away games like Halloween candy. Now the Panthers are being asked to go on the road for the first time in a month and win in cold weather, as a favorite, no less. This group hasn’t covered a road spread since 2022.

Carolina’s run game has carried them lately, but it’s also masking just how limited Bryce Young continues to be. He’s averaging 6.2 yards per attempt, ranks 30th in the league in completion percentage over expected, and continues to struggle reading blitzes. When the Panthers fall behind schedule, their drives die. They’ve gone three-and-out on 36% of their possessions this year — second worst in football.

The Jets’ record looks ugly, but context matters. Three of their six losses were by two points or less, and they’ve been within one score in the fourth quarter in five of six games. There’s a lot of noise about Justin Fields’ sack totals, and it’s fair criticism, but his underlying metrics are far better than the headlines suggest. Fields has yet to throw a pick this season, and when the Jets’ offensive line gives him two seconds or more to operate, his passer rating jumps nearly 40 points. The market sees a team that “can’t win,” when in reality, it’s one or two sequences from flipping its entire narrative.

Meanwhile, Carolina hasn’t proven a thing away from home under Dave Canales. The Panthers are 0-3 on the road, outscored by 42 points, and have turned the ball over seven times in those games. Their defensive front wears down late, their tackling deteriorates, and their discipline disappears.

Garrett Wilson’s likely absence for New York is baked into the line, but that only strengthens the value here. Public bettors see “Jets 0-6, no Wilson” and rush to back the team that’s “figured it out.” That’s a trap. You’re not supposed to feel good about taking the Jets. That’s exactly why you should.

This is Carolina being mispriced on perception alone. The Panthers are being graded on results that don’t translate to the road, while the Jets are being punished for close losses that could’ve gone either way.

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