Posted Friday at 1:00pm EST and odds are subject to change.

NFL Week: 7

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday. We’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

Sunday, October 12

L.A. Rams -3 over Jacksonville

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium – London, England

 

9:30 AM ET. The market sees the Rams losing Puka Nacua and immediately starts discounting them like they’re rolling out Carson Wentz at quarterback. That’s how overreactions happen, and that’s how value gets created. We’ll bite.

 There’s no denying Nacua’s importance — he leads the league in receptions and is top two in yardage — but let’s not pretend this Rams team hasn’t built itself around system, timing, and structure. Sean McVay has won plenty of games with rosters less talented than this one, and he’s still got Kyren Williams, and Matthew Stafford dealing behind an improving offensive line. This team wins with precision, not star power. The Rams could sit Nacua knowing they have a bye next week, which means this group enters London laser-focused on closing strong before the break.

 Jacksonville, on the other hand, is taking some undeserved market respect because they’ve “looked better” under Liam Coen. We’re not buying it. Last week’s loss to Seattle was more revealing than any of their previous wins — seven sacks allowed, zero takeaways, and 59 yards on the ground. That’s not an outlier; that’s who they are when forced to face a real front seven. Now they draw a Rams defense ranked top-three in scoring and top-eight in total defense. The Jags’ O-line was already bad; without linebacker Devin Lloyd on the other side, their margin for error shrinks even more.

 McVay knows Coen’s system inside and out — he helped build it. That’s a massive schematic edge in a neutral-site matchup where travel, distractions, and sleep schedules can level the field. Los Angeles has the better pass rush, the more stable quarterback, and the coach who’s been in this exact London spot before. Jacksonville’s 7–6 record across the pond doesn’t mean much when half those wins came against teams in freefall.

 The line’s short because of injury noise and perception. Take that noise away and you’ve got a disciplined, playoff-tested Rams squad versus a Jaguars team that just got bullied at home. The Rams will dictate pace, win the trenches, and send everyone home early for tea and toast. Recommendation: L.A. Rams -3

 Las Vegas +13 over Kansas City

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO

 1:00 PM ET. Patrick Mahomes looks back to his old tricks again — firing lasers, juking linebackers, and making the highlight reels hum. Kansas City’s won three of four and the public has decided the Chiefs are “back.” That’s all the market needed to hang this bloated number and invite every square in America to lay the lumber. We’ll bite the other way.

 

Let’s start with the obvious: 13 points is a mountain in the NFL. To cover this kind of number, everything has to go right — turnovers, field position, and situational efficiency all have to line up. Kansas City has rarely been that clean. Since 2022, the Chiefs are just 14-18 ATS at home with Mahomes under center. That’s not a small sample — that’s a pattern. Arrowhead mystique doesn’t cash tickets anymore.

Las Vegas isn’t pretty, but they’re feisty. The Raiders snapped their losing streak last week and quietly outgained Kansas City by 105 yards in last year’s meeting at Arrowhead. They averaged two more yards per play than the Chiefs that afternoon and still didn’t win because Daniel Carlson forgot how to kick. That sort of box score tells the real story — Vegas has hung around in this matchup for years, staying within the number more often than not.

The market’s punishing the Raiders for being ordinary, not awful. Geno Smith has thrown 10 picks, sure, but he’s also got a run game that can shorten drives and keep Mahomes parked on the sideline. Rookie back Ashton Jeanty is no joke — the kid runs hard, catches passes, and can flatten a linebacker. If he churns out 75–100 yards again, that’s the formula for a cover.

Kansas City’s defense deserves respect, but it’s also coming off a max-effort win over Detroit and now gets asked to cover a double-digit spread on a short prep week. Rashee Rice returns from suspension, which sounds like a boost — until you realize he hasn’t played a real game in over a year. The Chiefs are still trying to piece together timing and rhythm with an ever-changing WR group. We’ll gladly take the generous head start with a live underdog in a divisional spot that always plays tighter than it looks. Recommendation: Las Vegas +13

Miami +2½ over Cleveland

Cleveland Browns Stadium – Cleveland, OH

1:00 PM ET. Cleveland has lost three straight, ranks dead last in scoring offense, and just put up nine points at home in a divisional game. Miami is 1-5, yes, but they’ve covered three of their last four, have shown life offensively, and have at least looked like a professional football team. The market still insists on making Cleveland the favorite. Why? Because the Dolphins are “a mess,” Tua apologized, and the media framed this week as a leadership crisis. That’s surface-level noise — and it’s masking value.

Let’s strip it down to what matters. Dillon Gabriel is a rookie quarterback on a team averaging 13.7 points per game. He’s been sacked 12 times over the last two weeks. The Browns’ offensive line is crumbling, the play-calling is desperate, and the so-called “home-field advantage” has meant nothing — Cleveland is 1-6 ATS in its last seven at home. Now they’re being asked to win by a field goal against a Dolphins team that still has speed, balance, and big-play potential. No thanks.

The market doesn’t want Miami. That’s our cue. Tua’s apology made headlines, but it also signaled accountability — not collapse. Miami’s offense has quietly moved the ball, putting up 27 points against a strong Chargers defense and topping 20 in four straight. De’Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle are producing, Darren Waller has been a stabilizing presence, and this team hasn’t quit on their coach.

Meanwhile, Cleveland’s been outscored 78–36 over the last three weeks. The defense looks tired, the offense looks broken, and now Myles Garrett is less than 100 percent. That’s not the profile of a team you lay points with.

We’ll gladly grab the short number with the team that can actually score. Miami’s defense may not be elite, but Cleveland’s offense doesn’t threaten anyone. The Dolphins don’t even need to be sharp — they just need to play their usual B-minus game and let Cleveland self-destruct. Recommendation: Miami +2½

Tennessee +7½ over New England

Nissan Stadium – Nashville, TN

1:00 PM ET. When you see a rookie head coach and a rookie quarterback catching over a touchdown at home, the market is basically saying: “This team stinks.” Maybe so — but this number assumes Tennessee is the same disorganized mess we’ve seen through six weeks. We’re betting they’re not.

Brian Callahan’s lifeless 4–19 run finally ended, and while Mike McCoy isn’t exactly Bill Walsh, he at least brings a veteran voice and a change in tone. The “fired coach bounce” is a real thing in this league, especially when the new guy is preaching effort and accountability instead of excuses. McCoy’s message was simple — play hard, play tough, and play together — and that’s the kind of reset a 1–5 team can rally around.

Meanwhile, New England has suddenly become the darling of the betting market. They’ve won three straight, and Drake Maye’s 73% completion rate has folks dusting off those “Patriots are back” headlines. Problem is, those wins came against Carolina, Buffalo, and New Orleans — teams that are a combined 5–13. The Patriots’ offense still ranks in the bottom half of the league in yards per play, and their margin for error on the road is slim. They’re being priced here like a contender when, in reality, they’re a middle-tier team catching opponents in the right spots.

As for Tennessee, yes, the offense has been bad — 13.8 points per game is ugly — but let’s not ignore the context. They’ve faced four top-10 defenses already, and the rookie Cam Ward has taken every snap. The kid has struggled, but he’s also shown poise and an ability to make throws on the move. If Calvin Ridley can suit up, that’s a huge lift, but even if not, the Titans’ plan will be simple: slow the game, pound the rock, and keep Ward out of third-and-long.

The Patriots are on their third straight road game, and that’s not nothing. Teams in this exact spot — playing a third consecutive road game after two wins — are a miserable 33% ATS over the past 20 years. Fatigue, regression, and market overpricing all converge here. Recommendation: Tennessee +7½

New Orleans +5 over Chicago

Soldier Field – Chicago, IL

1:00 PM ET. The Bears have been living on borrowed time. They’ve won back-to-back games by identical 25-24 scores, both on last-second plays that required everything to go right — a blocked field goal, a perfect drive, and multiple opponent miscues. They were +3 in turnovers last week and still needed a walk-off kick to beat a bad Washington team. Now they’re on a short week, returning home with everyone suddenly believing they’re the next “it” team. That’s usually when the music stops.

New Orleans, meanwhile, has been a different kind of 1-5. Their record says one thing; their competitiveness says another. Four of those five losses have been one-score games where the Saints had chances to win late. They’ve been tough, organized, and a lot better than expected under Kellen Moore. Spencer Rattler has been poised beyond his years, completing 77% of his passes with just one interception all season. That’s elite-level ball security — and a huge contrast to Chicago’s reckless style.

The market opened Chicago -3½ and has ticked up to -5 solely because the Bears keep finding ways to survive. We’ll fade that noise. The Saints have the rest advantage, the injury edge, and the motivation of a group that’s been on the brink for weeks. Getting Taysom Hill back gives Moore more flexibility, and Alvin Kamara should play after managing his ankle last week.

There’s also an angle here that’s not being priced in: Dennis Allen, Chicago’s new defensive coordinator, was New Orleans’ head coach last season before getting fired midyear. Familiarity matters. Rattler and Moore will know how to attack this scheme — it’s the same one they practiced against every day in camp last year.

And if you like narrative spice, here’s one: Rattler and Caleb Williams go back to Oklahoma, where Williams famously replaced Rattler during a Red River shootout in 2021. Don’t think that’s forgotten. Motivation comes in many forms, and this matchup sets up as a quiet revenge game for the Saints’ rookie QB.

Chicago’s been opportunistic, sure, but their profile screams regression — too many penalties, too many close calls, and a defense that relies on turnovers to survive. The Saints, by contrast, are disciplined and due for some bounces to go their way. Recommendation: New Orleans +5

Philadelphia -1½ over Minnesota

U.S. Bank Stadium – Minneapolis, MN

1:00 PM ET. Nick Sirianni is 8–0 against the NFC North since taking over in 2021 and 2–0 specifically against the Vikings. He returns to the same building where the Eagles hoisted their first Lombardi Trophy and walks into a near-perfect bounce-back spot after consecutive losses. Philadelphia may have looked flat the past two weeks, but a mini-bye after the Thursday night loss to the Giants gives them time to reset and heal.

There’s nothing pretty about the Eagles’ current offensive rhythm — Kevin Patullo’s play-calling has been predictable and the passing attack looks off — but even with that, Philly still ranks top ten in red-zone efficiency and top five in run-block win rate. This team’s “issues” are fixable. Their physicality and trenches advantage remain intact.

Minnesota, on the other hand, is being priced like a team that figured something out. It hasn’t. The Vikings enter off a bye after alternating wins and losses through five weeks, and they still haven’t named a starter. J.J. McCarthy hasn’t played since mid-September with an ankle injury, and Carson Wentz is exactly what he’s been for years — a bad decision waiting to happen. Against this defensive front? Good luck.

The market’s clinging to the “home dog off a bye” angle, but that’s been a bankroll killer for years — just 44% against the number since 2011. Meanwhile, the Eagles are being graded like they’re in crisis because of two losses. They’re not. They’re still the more complete, battle-tested team with a proven coach and quarterback. Everything about this setup screams overreaction. The Eagles are the better side in every phase and should flex that here. Short number, clear edge, right spot. Recommendation: Philadelphia -1½

New York Jets +1½ over Carolina

MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, NJ

 

1:00 PM ET. The Panthers have won back-to-back games at home, and the market is tripping over itself to believe that means something. Let’s slow down. Carolina’s “streak” came against Miami and Dallas — two teams that have been giving away games like Halloween candy. Now the Panthers are being asked to go on the road for the first time in a month and win in cold weather, as a favorite, no less. This group hasn’t covered a road spread since 2022.

Carolina’s run game has carried them lately, but it’s also masking just how limited Bryce Young continues to be. He’s averaging 6.2 yards per attempt, ranks 30th in the league in completion percentage over expected, and continues to struggle reading blitzes. When the Panthers fall behind schedule, their drives die. They’ve gone three-and-out on 36% of their possessions this year — second worst in football.

The Jets’ record looks ugly, but context matters. Three of their six losses were by two points or less, and they’ve been within one score in the fourth quarter in five of six games. There’s a lot of noise about Justin Fields’ sack totals, and it’s fair criticism, but his underlying metrics are far better than the headlines suggest. Fields has yet to throw a pick this season, and when the Jets’ offensive line gives him two seconds or more to operate, his passer rating jumps nearly 40 points. The market sees a team that “can’t win,” when in reality, it’s one or two sequences from flipping its entire narrative.

Meanwhile, Carolina hasn’t proven a thing away from home under Dave Canales. The Panthers are 0-3 on the road, outscored by 42 points, and have turned the ball over seven times in those games. Their defensive front wears down late, their tackling deteriorates, and their discipline disappears.

Garrett Wilson’s likely absence for New York is baked into the line, but that only strengthens the value here. Public bettors see “Jets 0-6, no Wilson” and rush to back the team that’s “figured it out.” That’s a trap. You’re not supposed to feel good about taking the Jets. That’s exactly why you should.

This is Carolina being mispriced on perception alone. The Panthers are being graded on results that don’t translate to the road, while the Jets are being punished for close losses that could’ve gone either way. Recommendation: NY Jets +1½ 

Indianapolis +1½ over L.A. Chargers

SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, CA

4:25 PM ET. Let’s start with the obvious: the Chargers are 4-2, but they’ve trailed in the fourth quarter of five games. Last week they needed a field goal with five seconds left to beat Miami, who gift-wrapped the game with penalties and a red-zone turnover. That’s Los Angeles football under Jim Harbaugh — smoke, mirrors, and a whole lot of “what ifs.” The Bolts have a soft record built on weak execution by their opponents, not their own strength.

Now they’re laying points with a patchwork offensive line that’s missing its cornerstone left tackle (Joe Alt) and relying on two replacement-level tackles who were both on practice squads this time last year. Herbert has been sacked 17 times already — sixth most in the NFL — and now faces a Colts defense that disguises pressure as well as anyone. Lou Anarumo’s scheme is a nightmare for a banged-up line, and the Chargers haven’t seen anything like it since Week 1 in Brazil.

Indianapolis has done what good teams do — beat who’s in front of them. They’re 5-1 because their offense has been balanced, their protection solid, and Daniel Jones hasn’t made the big mistake. Jonathan Taylor’s resurgence is real, but the story here is the Colts’ O-line, which has allowed the fewest quarterback hits in the league. That’s the kind of protection that travels.

Yes, the Colts’ secondary is thin, and yes, Herbert might make a few highlight throws. The problem is, Los Angeles can’t run the ball to save its life, which means Herbert is asked to do everything behind a collapsing line. That’s a bad equation for any favorite.

Market perception still gives the Chargers too much credit because of the logo and the quarterback, not the results. They’re 0-3 ATS at home this season and have covered just twice in their last nine games as a favorite. Meanwhile, the Colts have quietly been one of the best first-half teams in football — meaning they start fast, and Harbaugh’s group will be chasing.

Oddsmakers hung this short line to tempt the same crowd that keeps backing the Chargers because “they’re due.” They’ve been due for about 25 years. The Colts, meanwhile, are cohesive, confident, and unafraid to line up and punch you in the mouth. Recommendation: Indianapolis +1½

Denver -7½ over N.Y. Giants

Empower Field at Mile High – Denver, CO

4:25 PM ET. Sure, New York has pulled off a couple of nice upsets — beating the Chargers and Eagles over the last few weeks — but both of those games were at home. On the road, this outfit is a different story altogether. Since the start of last season, the G-Men are 2-9 straight up and 3-8 against the number away from MetLife. That’s not bad luck — that’s a bad football team getting exposed when the crowd isn’t there to hide it.

Now they’ll go from The Meadowlands to the altitude of Denver, where the Broncos’ defense is suffocating opponents. This unit has quietly turned into one of the league’s elite, sitting top-5 in yards per play allowed, top-3 in sacks, and No. 2 in defensive EPA. They just spent 60 minutes in London tormenting the Jets, recording nine sacks, and now get a rookie quarterback in Jaxson Dart behind an O-line that can’t protect a lead, let alone a pocket.

The Giants’ “new-look” offense under Dart and rookie back Cam Skattebo has been a nice story — the football equivalent of a summer indie flick that looks better when no one’s hitting back. Against Denver’s front, that script flips fast. Dart will have to throw into disguised coverages with disguised pressure, and Sean Payton’s group thrives on forcing mistakes. The Broncs win ugly, but they win.

Denver has outgained each of its last three opponents, and the home-field edge here is massive. The Broncos are 2-0 at Mile High this season and have covered nine of their last 12 at home against non-division foes. New York, meanwhile, has averaged just 13.4 points per game in its last seven away from home.

There’s also a scheduling edge that matters: teams who play immediately after a London game have gone 15-10 straight up since the NFL added that option. Translation — the fatigue angle is baked into the line, not real.

The Giants have been living off good vibes and home-field adrenaline. Denver lives off defense, elevation, and violence at the line of scrimmage. If you think a rookie QB is going to survive that for 60 minutes, we’ve got a mountain to sell you. Recommendation: Denver -7½

Arizona +6½ over Green Bay

State Farm Stadium – Glendale, AZ

4:25 PM ET. Green Bay enters this matchup coming off a 27-18 home win over the Bengals, a game that exposed both strengths and weaknesses. Jordan Love threw for a touchdown but was intercepted twice in the second half.

The Packers come to Glendale as better than touchdown chalk, but that line is hiding a lot of risk. The Packers may be 3-1-1, but they haven’t won on the road yet this season, and their offense hasn’t played a complete game for four quarters. Jordan Love has been efficient at times, but he’s thrown two interceptions in three of the last four contests. Meanwhile, Josh Jacobs is battling through illness, and linebacker Lukas Van Ness is sidelined with a foot injury.

Arizona, on the other hand, has been inching closer than the scoreboard suggests. The Cardinals have dropped four straight games, but three of them were by a combined nine points. Kyler Murray’s status has been a question mark, but even with Jacoby Brissett under center last week, Arizona dropped a 31-27 decision at Indianapolis, showing they can hang in tight spots. Brissett threw for 320 yards and two scores despite playing with a patchwork lineup, including missing Marvin Harrison Jr. in the second quarter.

The Cardinals’ injuries are piling up, but Jonathan Gannon has maintained a steady approach, refusing to overreact while keeping the team disciplined. They’ve shown the ability to fight in the fourth quarter, and home-field advantage in the desert is real. Recommendation: Arizona +6½

Dallas -1 over Washington

AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX

4:25 PM ET. Offense is king in this NFC East clash, and both teams are begging for a shootout. Washington is limping in, Terry McLaurin still a question mark, their running backs unreliable, and their defense the NFL equivalent of Swiss cheese. Meanwhile, Dallas is finally getting CeeDee Lamb back, and Dak Prescott is playing like a guy who knows MVP voters are watching.

History isn’t kind to the Commanders here. Dallas has won six of the last eight meetings, covering seven of those games. Three of the last four matchups have gone over the total, and the lone under barely squeaked in. The Cowboys haven’t just been beating Washington—they’ve been exploiting them.

Dallas’ defense is awful—no denying it. They allow 411 yards and 30 points per game. But Washington’s defense isn’t much better. This isn’t about stopping anyone. This is about who can score faster, and the Cowboys have the edge. Dak is accurate, Lamb stretches the field, and George Pickens is on fire. Washington doesn’t have the horses to keep pace if Dallas hits its stride.

This isn’t going to be pretty, but it’s going to be loud and messy—and Dallas should be standing at the end. The safe money? Take the Cowboys to cover in a game that’s built for points, big plays, and Prescott doing Prescott things. This number is as soft as Washington’s secondary. Recommendation: Dallas -1

San Francisco -2 over Atlanta

8:20 PM ET. The line opened at 4½ and has already dropped to the number you see now after Atlanta stunned the football world with a Monday night win over Buffalo. That’s the kind of overreaction the sharp money loves. Don’t get me wrong—the Falcons’ defense is impressive, holding Josh Allen to 180 yards and sacking him four times. Bijan Robinson is running like the second coming of Marshall Faulk. But this isn’t a rebuild against a middling opponent—it’s a battered San Francisco team that’s desperate to bounce back at home.

The 49ers are dealing with injuries, sure. Fred Warner is gone for the season, Nick Bosa is out, and both quarterbacks are limited. But don’t underestimate Kyle Shanahan’s ability to make things click when the chips are down. Mac Jones or Brock Purdy, whoever starts, has a stable of weapons that can torch Atlanta’s aggressive front if given a chance. George Kittle is back, healthy enough to change a game in a single play. Christian McCaffrey is still McCaffrey, and this offense thrives on efficiency, timing, and space.

Atlanta has looked like a top defense for two weeks, but those wins came at home and against teams that have had their flaws exposed. San Francisco isn’t just another opponent—they’re smart, resilient, and battle-tested in tight games. They’ve already lost only two games by more than five points this season. A line drop this significant tells us the market is getting cute with the Falcons’ Monday night glory, but the value train on the Dirty Birds left the station after that win. Recommendation: San Francisco -2