Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Toronto +125 over NY Yankees

Yankee Stadium – Bronx, NY

ALDS Game Three

8:00 PM ET. The market loves a “must-win” narrative, especially when it’s wrapped in pinstripes. You pay a premium for it every October, and the Yankees’ name alone inflates the line. Down 0–2 in the series and staring down elimination, New York is being priced like urgency wins baseball games. It doesn’t. It just creates inflated markets and bad bets.

The Yankees have coughed up 23 runs through two games, and now Carlos Rodón gets the ball in a supposed “stopper” role. The record (18–9, 3.09 ERA) says one thing, but the underlying math screams something else. Rodón has been skating on a .228 BABIP all season and somehow carrying that luck forward into October (.212 BABIP so far). His FIP sits above five. His strand rate is unsustainable. This is what a statistical mirage looks like before it breaks.

Toronto, meanwhile, looks like a team that knows what time it is. The Blue Jays are seeing beach balls at the plate, and every mistake is being punished. They’ve averaged double digits in runs through the first two games and now get another crack at a pitcher surviving on smoke and sequencing luck. It’s not just that Toronto’s bats are hot — it’s that they’re relentless, making pitchers work every at-bat while forcing high-leverage innings early.

The market has decided the Yankees “can’t get swept at home.” That’s not analysis — it’s hope disguised as conviction. The better team is taking back a price here. Toronto doesn’t need a miracle; they just need to keep being what they’ve been all series — patient, poised, and punishing.

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