Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Seattle -1½ +180 over Texas

4:10 PM EST. Logan Gilbert (RHP- SEA, 3.71 ERA) is the arm we want in this matchup, and the current numbers give us plenty to work with. Gilbert has 176 strikeouts against only 42 walks in 165 innings, translating to an excellent 9.6 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9. His 1.07 WHIP and 3.73 xERA are almost perfectly aligned with the ERA, which tells us the production is legitimate rather than a product of good fortune. The 26.6% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate give him a very strong K-BB profile, and his .299 xwOBA further supports the quality of contact he has been allowing.

Jacob deGrom (RHP- TEX, 3.96 ERA) obviously brings the name recognition, but the underlying numbers give Seattle a legitimate opportunity to attack this matchup. deGrom has been outstanding at missing bats, striking out 10.93 per nine with a 29.9% strikeout rate and only a 6.5% walk rate. His 1.12 WHIP is strong and his 3.18 FIP is actually considerably better than his ERA, so this is hardly a case of backing Seattle because Texas has a weak pitcher. The distinction is that Gilbert has been the more efficient run-prevention arm while deGrom's current ERA leaves Texas vulnerable to giving Seattle a little more value than it deserves.

The number is what makes this play. We are not going against deGrom because we think he suddenly forgot how to pitch; we are taking Seattle because Gilbert's current profile is every bit as strong from a betting standpoint and the Mariners are being offered at a price that gives us room to attack the run line. Gilbert's combination of strikeouts, command and contact suppression gives Seattle the edge, while the Mariners' offense only needs to capitalize on the opportunities that come its way.

This is a classic spot to take the better price rather than automatically gravitating toward the bigger name on the mound. Seattle has the pitcher with the cleaner current ERA, nearly identical xERA, better WHIP and excellent command

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