Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Sacred Heart -2.5 over Mount St. Mary's

Knott Athletic Recreation Convocation Center – Emmitsburg, MD

7:00 PM ET. If one were to look at this line, they would think that The Mount should be the chalk here, but they are not - the Pioneers are. And yet, the market is piling on the Mountaineers because the trends dictate, they are the play - Heart haven't won on the road yet this season, they are 0-5 outside of Fairfield and when these two teams have met in Emmitsburg, the last three times the Mountaineers were favored and won each of those contests. The line simply doesn't make sense to the naked eye but as we know trends and results don't cash tickets, finding value does.

Heart just got mangled at Penn State, gave up 106 to Central Connecticut State in the Blue Demons barn up in New Britain, and they weren't remotely close to being competitive whether it be at Queens University, Villanova, or Duquesne. The Mount meanwhile beat Howard at home on Black Friday where they covered as a 2.5-point choice. This leads back to the initial question, why are the Pioneers favored here?

We can circumspect as much as we’d like, but we reckon it has something to do with the Mountaineers owning one of the worst scoring defenses in Division I - giving up a 326th ranked 80.9 points per game. The Mount did this playing a 126th ranked strength of schedule while Sacred Heart played the 95th ranked strength of schedule and their defense sits 80 places higher in the Division I rankings with regards to scoring. What does that mean? A JV team can put up points on The Mount.

When a team with that poor of a defensive profile is not favored at home against an 0-5 road opponent, the oddsmakers are making a statement. They are signaling that Sacred Heart has the matchup edge—particularly on the scoring side—and that the market’s fixation on trends is misplaced. The Pioneers did not open as the favorite by mistake. Sacred Heart is favored here because they are going to get their chances to dig in. So will we. We follow the signal and lay the points.   

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Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Mississippi State -2.5 over GEORGIA TECH

McCamish Pavilion – Atlanta, GA

9:15 PM ET. Mississippi State hasn’t covered a spread all season — 0–7 ATS — which naturally turns them into a fade magnet here. Yet despite that, the Bulldogs are laying points on the road against a Georgia Tech team with the better record and an undefeated mark in Atlanta. That alone tells you everything you need to know about where the edge really sits.

Georgia Tech is 5–0 at home, riding the optics of early success, and the market could have easily positioned the Jackets as the favorite here without anyone blinking. Instead, oddsmakers hung Mississippi State as the road chalk. That’s intentional. The setup practically invites bettors to grab the home dog at plus money and fade the squad that hasn’t cashed a ticket yet. That type of bait is classic.

We also can’t ignore how Mississippi State’s last outing ended — an overtime collapse against unbeaten SMU after leading by nine late. We were on the Bulldogs in that game, and the sequence was maddening: a missed wide-open dagger, followed by a turnover seconds later. Those kinds of results skew perception, making it appear as though Mississippi State is incapable of finishing games, when in reality they’ve simply been on the wrong side of variance.

Strip away the noise and what you’re left with is a Bulldogs team that has been snake-bitten more than not good, their 3-4 record is a misnomer, and their position as a liability has them now priced at a clear discount. If State had any semblance of profitability or marketability here, they would be laying an even bigger tag than the short number posted presently. This is more than simply “sticking with it”, Mississippi State is the sharp side here and the number tells us that. Bulldogs get it done.

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Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

UM-KANSAS CITY +210 ML over Idaho State

UMKC Recreation Center – Kansas City, MO

8:00 PM ET. If you lined this game using basic power metrics, Idaho State should be laying something in the neighborhood of double digits. Instead, the Bengals are a mid-range favorite. That disconnect alone is enough to make us dig deeper.

On the surface, Idaho State looks like the more polished selection. They’re 5–1 against the spread, they are a .500 basketball team, and they just obliterated Cal State Northridge on Thanksgiving by 32 points as a one-point favorite. The Bengals were passing cranberry sauce around in Pocatello before the final whistle blew. That kind of blowout gives a team an immediate stock bump — the kind that the man on the street will tend to chase.

Kansas City brings none of that shine. The Roos have exactly one win and one cover to their name this season. They’ve dropped six straight, all by double figures. The market sees that résumé and wants nothing to do with them. And that is exactly why this number is bizarre — because despite everything that screams “Idaho State” is a bargain, the price truly says Kansas City is very live here.

Oddsmakers are not in the charity business. If Idaho State’s résumé were as meaningful as it looks on paper, this line would reflect it. Instead, we get a subtle invitation to consider the ugly dog. Kansas City’s recent losses came almost exclusively in hostile territory; suddenly they step into a winnable spot against a team coming off its best game of the season where they crushed the number — a classic letdown scenario. We say frequently that we don’t bet teams, we bet the number. And this number suggests UMKC is poised to punch back far harder than perception allows. Roos outright.

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