Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

New Orleans +180 over Chicago

Soldier Field – Chicago, IL

1:00 PM ET. The Bears have been living on borrowed time. They’ve won back-to-back games by identical 25-24 scores, both on last-second plays that required everything to go right — a blocked field goal, a perfect drive, and multiple opponent miscues. They were +3 in turnovers last week and still needed a walk-off kick to beat a bad Washington team. Now they’re on a short week, returning home with everyone suddenly believing they’re the next “it” team. That’s usually when the music stops.

New Orleans, meanwhile, has been a different kind of 1-5. Their record says one thing; their competitiveness says another. Four of those five losses have been one-score games where the Saints had chances to win late. They’ve been tough, organized, and a lot better than expected under Kellen Moore. Spencer Rattler has been poised beyond his years, completing 77% of his passes with just one interception all season. That’s elite-level ball security — and a huge contrast to Chicago’s reckless style.

The market opened Chicago -3½ and has ticked up to -5 solely because the Bears keep finding ways to survive. We’ll fade that noise. The Saints have the rest advantage, the injury edge, and the motivation of a group that’s been on the brink for weeks. Getting Taysom Hill back gives Moore more flexibility, and Alvin Kamara should play after managing his ankle last week.

There’s also an angle here that’s not being priced in: Dennis Allen, Chicago’s new defensive coordinator, was New Orleans’ head coach last season before getting fired midyear. Familiarity matters. Rattler and Moore will know how to attack this scheme — it’s the same one they practiced against every day in camp last year.

And if you like narrative spice, here’s one: Rattler and Caleb Williams go back to Oklahoma, where Williams famously replaced Rattler during a Red River shootout in 2021. Don’t think that’s forgotten. Motivation comes in many forms, and this matchup sets up as a quiet revenge game for the Saints’ rookie QB.

Chicago’s been opportunistic, sure, but their profile screams regression — too many penalties, too many close calls, and a defense that relies on turnovers to survive. The Saints, by contrast, are disciplined and due for some bounces to go their way.

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