Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Detroit 2.5 over Dallas

McCamish Pavilion – Atlanta, GA

8:15 PM ET. The market is buying Dallas because of the scoreboard, but the situation says something entirely different. Three emotional wins, back-to-back national TV games, and now a short week flight into Ford Field — while Detroit plays with season-on-the-line urgency in its own barn. These aren’t equal spots.

Dallas’ offensive explosion looks extraordinary on paper, but context matters. They caught an unprepared Chiefs front on a short turnaround. They faced a Raiders defense that’s been giving up explosives for a month. Now they draw a Detroit defense that may be leaking oil, but still wins at the point of attack more often than not. Detroit’s biggest issues the last few weeks have come from coverage breakdowns when they’ve been forced to defend for 70+ snaps. That’s less about talent and more about game state. Campbell knows it. Expect adjustments.

This is a playoff game in September clothing, and Detroit is built for this style — heavy, physical, sustained drives. When the Lions control the tempo, Jared Goff becomes a rhythm passer instead of a gunslinger. That’s the version Detroit needs and usually gets at home. Whether Amon-Ra St. Brown suits up is important, but Detroit’s offense doesn’t evaporate without him — it simply shifts. The Lions are sixth in the league in yards after contact per rush. They do not need fireworks to win.

The Cowboys are being priced like nothing can go wrong, but the regression triggers are flashing. Dak Prescott has been carving secondaries while rarely being forced into high leverage third downs or late-down pressure. Detroit — for all its warts — is still one of the league’s best at forcing negative plays on early downs. If Dallas is behind the sticks, this game gets much longer than the spread implies.

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