Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

PURDUE +28 over Indiana

Ross-Ade Stadium – West Lafayette, IN

7:30 PM ET. Rivalry games create volatility, and the Old Oaken Bucket, though a mismatch on paper this year, has a legacy of its own historically when it comes to chaos. Indiana enters as the #2 team in the country at 11–0 with a playoff berth locked in and a Big Ten Championship appearance on deck. That alone sets up a massive look-ahead scenario or at least an impetus for IU to bring its C-Game here. Purdue meanwhile will bring their A-game by virtue of the rivalry itself and who they are playing. That’s an edge toward the Boilers.

The Hoosiers have nothing to gain by running up the score here. Protecting starters, limiting injury exposure, and keeping the playbook tight are all far more important than covering a big number against a team with two wins on the year. After all, we remind all that a potential undefeated #1 Ohio State who is the defending champion is on deck. After that…the CFP. There is no reason for Indiana to do anything other than treat this as a scrimmage dressed up as a rivalry game.

Purdue, meanwhile, is sitting at 2–9, winless in Big Ten play, and this is effectively their bowl game. Whether they’re capable of winning outright doesn’t matter — we don’t need them to do that there. We just need them to hang around to an extent. What matters is that Purdue will play this like their championship, while Indiana’s focus logically drifts toward the far bigger challenge looming in Indianapolis. Laying four touchdowns requires Indiana to maintain full intensity and keep their first-string offense on the field far longer than is sensible. And then, the backdoor is open too. Indiana can get up 40 and a couple of junk-time scores from a spirited Purdue squad gets us under the number. With Purdue fully motivated and Indiana likely to pace themselves, this is an ideal spot to grab an undervalued dog with inflated points.

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