Posted at 11:00 AM ET, Wednesday, Dec 3. Odds are subject to change

Miami Ohio +110 ML over Western Michigan (Neutral Site Field)

Saturday, December 6, 2005

Ford Field – Detroit, MI Mid-American Conference Championship

12:00 PM ET. The MAC Championship gives us a matchup where the market sentiment is as loud as the on-field production. Western Michigan enters this game having won eight of its last nine, and more importantly for perception, the Broncos are 6-2-1 against the spread during that streak. Week after week, bettors see Western Michigan on the board, line up to back them, and walk away with winning tickets. That type of momentum creates a gravitational pull — it convinces the market masses that the Broncos must simply be the right side again. That’s precisely when the brakes need to be slammed.

Miami of Ohio enters as the quieter team, and intentionally so. Yes, the RedHawks just handled Ball State easily as a 17-point favorite and hammered Buffalo the week before, but those wins will not shape the narrative this week. What will shape it is the memory of last year’s MAC title game, when Miami walked into this exact setting and got steamrolled by Ohio. The market remembers that. The instinct becomes: fade Miami, ride the hot hand with WMU.

But here is the reality — for all the acclaim Western Michigan has picked up over the past month and a half, they are still laying less than a field goal in the conference championship against a team that, despite its blemishes, has shown a much higher ceiling. The line is telling us that Miami is absolutely live.

Miami of Ohio also enters in a classic bounce-back program spot: a chance to right last year’s humiliation and reclaim legitimacy in the MAC. Their blowout loss against Toledo and their defeat at Ohio will be used as ammunition against them, but this is a reset point. Western Michigan, riding peak market confidence, is at maximum inflation in terms of pricing while the Hawks are not so much. This is where the opportunity emerges. Hawks take home the chip.

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 5 runs ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 5 runs ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

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