Posted at 11:00 AM ET, Wednesday, Dec 3. Odds are subject to change

BYU +12.5 over Texas Tech (Neutral Site Field)

Saturday, December 6th, 2025

AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX

Big 12 Championship

12:00 PM ET. Texas Tech has been one of the most profitable teams in the country this season, and that alone makes this line dangerous. Whether you go by the opening numbers or the closing consensus, the Red Raiders have been a cash cow at every turn, sitting at either 10–2 ATS or 11–1–1 ATS, and by some measures a perfect 12–0 ATS relative to the opening price. That type of success always inflates a team’s perception, particularly in a championship-type setting where the public is conditioned to trust the “sure thing.” And in the last two weeks, Tech has taken back-to-back wins by 39 and 49 points as 24-point favorites, further feeding the idea that they are an unstoppable machine.

But now the market posts nearly the identical number that Tech covered against BYU in the first meeting—Tech won 29–7 in Lubbock, laying essentially this same spread. That should immediately raise alarms. You rarely see oddsmakers invite bettors to “auto-play” a side unless they’re expecting the opposite result. And as we know, beating the same team twice in the same season is notoriously difficult, even more so when the first meeting was lopsided. In the NFL, divisional opponents split all the time for this very reason: adjustments, familiarity, and regression.

BYU’s path to competing here is obvious. In the first matchup, the Cougars committed three turnovers, while Texas Tech committed zero, and all three giveaways became points the other way. That is pure variance, not dominance. Remove even one of those mistakes and the entire complexion of that game changes.

Now, BYU gets Tech on a neutral field in Arlington, albeit much closer to Lubbock than Provo but still not a true road game, and with a playoff bid still on the table, this becomes a fully motivated outfit with a different disposition compared to the first go-around. Upset potential is absolutely on the table, but with nearly two touchdowns, the Cougars are the play.   

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 5 runs ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 5 runs ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

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