Posted at 11:00 AM ET, Wednesday, Dec 3. Odds are subject to change

TULANE +115 ML over North Texas

Friday, December 5th, 2025

Yulman Stadium – New Orleans, LA

American Athletic Conference Championship

8:00 PM ET. On the surface, it feels counterintuitive to step in front of a North Texas team that has been nothing short of a betting juggernaut. The Mean Green are 10–2 ATS, winners and covers in six straight, and during this streak they have turned every opponent into roadkill. Since their infamous 63–36 loss to South Florida in early October, North Texas has averaged video-game numbers on offense and has obliterated the spread by margins rarely seen this deep into the season. We are talking about blowouts exceeding 30 points in four of these last six wins while covering lines routinely priced between -18 and -25 with breathing room. UNT has dumped 50+ points in five of those six victories too. You do not see runs like this often. And that is exactly the point. Teams that crush every number laid in front of them do not sustain it forever—especially when they step into a conference championship game, where the market sharpens and regression becomes more likely. If there was ever a spot where a correction could hit, this is it.

Tulane, meanwhile, is the forgotten commodity simply because they have not been lighting up the scoreboard or cashing tickets with the same flash (6–6 ATS). But peel deeper and this Green Wave team is battle-tested and extremely capable. Their only two losses all season were to Ole Miss—who made the playoff—and to UTSA in a game where expectations may have swallowed them whole. Other than that, they have beaten two teams of real substance: Memphis on the road when Memphis was ranked, and Duke, a team playing for the ACC title.

Most importantly, Tulane is at home. And the fact that they are a home underdog in a conference championship game—there is immense value with the Squids here on that basis alone. But it is deeper than that. North Texas is spotting a tag here because their profile is inflated off an unsustainably profitable run, and Tulane is the undervalued side hiding in plain sight.

North Texas deserves credit for its heater, but that heater is precisely why this price exists. Tulane hasn’t lost at home this season, and they will not be intimidated by the Mean Green one bit. Green Wave outright.

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 5 runs ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 5 runs ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

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