Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Hawaii +120 ML over UNLV

Allegiant Stadium – Las Vegas, NV

10:30 PM ET. This market is establishing UNLV as the favorite here strictly because the game is in Las Vegas. What’s being overlooked is just how thin the margin is between these two programs right now and how much this specific setting actually favors Hawaii. This is essentially a Mountain West elimination game—the winner will likely move on with a path to the conference title game, while the loser is staring at an early-December bowl assignment.

UNLV’s home-field edge is not as significant here because of the long-standing “Ninth Island” effect. Hawaii fans have a contingent in Las Vegas unlike any other destination on the mainland, and they show up in volume. The Warriors won’t feel like visitors here, and that matters in a game this big. The Rebs have looked more steady as of late coming off two comfortable wins—but look at who those came against: Colorado State and Utah State. Neither opponent is remotely close to the top of the Mountain West.

Hawaii, meanwhile, is genuinely dangerous. Two weeks ago, they obliterated San Diego State 38–6 against an Aztecs team that some thought could sneak into the playoffs, if they won out. The performance by Chang and company was one that showed just how explosive the Warriors’ offense is when it clicks. Their passing attack is one of the most potent in the conference, and they now draw a UNLV defense surrendering more than 330 yards per game through the air. That is a perfect matchup for what Hawaii wants to do. The Warriors can stretch the field, force UNLV’s secondary to defend every blade of grass, and take control of the tempo.

UNLV’s résumé is also littered with near-misses—games that could have easily gone the other way if not for a bounce or two. Idaho State (FCS), Miami Ohio, and Air Force come to mind. The Rebels are nowhere near the dominant conference force the market perceives them as. Hawaii, on the other hand, is undervalued coming off a statement win and enters with momentum, confidence, and a stylistic advantage. Factor in the neutral-leaning crowd, the matchup edge, and the stakes, and Hawaii is not just live—they’re the right side to win outright. Wrong side favored.

Take advantage of BET365's early MLB payout offer! 

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 5 runs ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 5 runs ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

v