Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Tampa Bay +118 over Pittsburgh

1:00 PM EST. We need to talk about this one honestly, because our first look at this game had us on Pittsburgh, and the closer we looked at it, the more we changed our minds. Yes, Aaron Rodgers is 42 years old and just became the first Steeler since Terry Bradshaw in 1982 to throw three or more touchdowns in three straight games, capped off by Pittsburgh's win over Indianapolis last week. Father Time keeps calling and Rodgers keeps sending him to voicemail. We get the story. The market is buying that story at full price, and Pittsburgh's stock is as high right now as it has been all season. That's exactly what has us looking the other way.

Because on the other sideline is a team the market is absolutely sick of. Tampa Bay is 1-9 against the spread in its last 10 games. Nine times in 10, people have bet this team and ripped up the ticket, and bettors have long memories for that kind of thing. So when the Bucs went into Dallas last week and not only covered but won the game outright, how did the market explain it? Not by giving Tampa Bay any credit for improving. No, it was all about Dallas being a brutal football team. Maybe that's even fair — a team doesn't lose nine of 10 against the spread and suddenly get good in one week. But here's the flip side of that: a team that has burned that many tickets gets priced like it's dead, and Tampa Bay cannot be a home underdog here against a Pittsburgh team whose stock is inflated and who, frankly, aren't a very good football team themselves.

The rookie is part of the reason we can live with this ticket. His name is Jalon Daniels — get used to saying it — and he has looked a little better every time out. He led that upset in Dallas, Tampa Bay's first four losses were all by a touchdown or less, and the Bucs have had 10 days to get him ready for this one after playing on Thursday night. Tampa Bay also holds the ball, averaging almost 32 minutes of possession a game, which is exactly how a home dog shortens a game, keeps Rodgers standing on the sideline, and turns this into the kind of low-possession coin flip where +2½ at home matters.

And finally, a word about the noise, because you're going to hear plenty of it this week. You'll be told Pittsburgh is a perfect 11-0 against the spread in its last 11 games against NFC South teams. You'll be told Tampa Bay is 1-13 against the spread before it plays Carolina and winless against the spread lately against the AFC North. Some newsletter will put it in big letters and call it a clincher. Folks, that guy is right about once in 100 games, and goofy trends built on rosters and quarterbacks who aren't even in this game anymore are not a reason to lay points on the road with a team the public has fallen in love with. That's not handicapping, that's a sales pitch. We'll take the team at home that nobody wants to bet, getting points, against the team whose stock just peaked. Bucs outright is the call.

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