Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Cleveland +4½ -110 over Baltimore

1:00 PM EST. The entire move is Lamar Jackson's ankle. He hasn't practiced all week, he's officially "day-to-day," and the line touched -5.5 before easing off. You're either getting a gimpy Lamar or Tyler Huntley, and neither one scares anyone in October.

Huntley was fine in relief (three touchdowns, no turnovers in the overtime win at Atlanta), but fine doesn't cover 4.5 on the road in a divisional rock fight. And here's the scary part for Cleveland backers: the Ravens blitz 42.8% of the time (sixth-most), and Deshaun Watson completes 52% against the blitz with an NFL-high 19 sacks taken. He's going to be running for his life from the opening snap. Just survive, Deshaun. That's the whole game plan.

Divisional home dogs getting more than a field goal are one of the sport's most reliable welfare programs. Henry will get his, the Browns' defense bends at home, and this ends 20-17 either way. Take the 4.5 — or your 3.5, you beautiful early bird — and sweat the fourth quarter like the rest of us.

Now, we should be clear about what Baltimore is when Lamar is right, because those numbers are genuinely scary. The Ravens are piling up almost 400 yards a game, they run it better than almost anybody behind Derrick Henry and his seven touchdowns, and Lamar himself leads the league in yards per attempt and passer rating, with Zay Flowers averaging over 100 yards a game down the field. That's the offense this price is built on. But that's exactly the point — those are Lamar's numbers, and Baltimore either won't have him or won't have all of him, a week after it needed overtime and a rally from 14-6 down just to get past Atlanta without him. Cleveland's pass rush, which already has 16 sacks, has to get home, the run defense has to survive Henry, and the history here says the Dawg Pound is where Baltimore covers go to die: the Browns are 6-0 against the spread in their last six division home games, the road team in this series has failed to cover five straight, and Cleveland is back home after that 17-12 loss to the Jets with a triple-revenge spot in its pocket. Add it all up and yes, we'll say it out loud — we smell a possible upset here.

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