Posted Friday at 2:30pm EST and odds are subject to change.

NFL Week: 6

October 16

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday. We’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

Houston +2½ over Jacksonville

9:30 AM EST. Football with your breakfast, and a market that has already changed its mind. Houston opened as the small favorite, Jacksonville is now laying 2½, and yes, the Jaguars' defense is the real deal, allowing just 14 points a game. But go back and look at how they won last week. They needed a 57-yard kick at the death to get past Philadelphia, they took 13 penalties, and they went 0-for-3 in the red zone. That is not a team taking care of business. That is a team surviving it, and there is a big difference when you are being asked to lay points with them.

Houston, for the first time all year, actually has something going. The Texans finally got in the win column by hammering Tennessee 26-3, C.J. Stroud is up to six touchdown passes without a single interception, and now Marvin Harrison Jr. makes his Houston debut, reunited with his old Ohio State quarterback. Add a healthy Nico Collins back into the mix and Will Anderson Jr. leading a defense that has piled up 10 sacks in its last three games, and this is easily the most complete version of the Texans we have seen. They are catching Jacksonville at precisely the wrong time for the Jaguars and precisely the right time for them.

The selling point for Jacksonville is that this is their second straight week in London, so they are supposedly the acclimated team, the team that treats this like a second home, and yes, they have handled the second leg of this trip before. Maybe that is all true. We just are not willing to pay to find out. These are young, star athletes with a lot of money in their pockets, living out of a hotel in another country, away from their families and away from every normal routine they have, with every enticement London has to offer sitting right outside the door. Are they locked in on football for two full weeks over there, tucked in early every night? We have no idea. Nobody does. And notice the price while everyone talks about all these built-in Jaguar advantages: if Jacksonville had that much going for it, why are they only laying 2½? That is the oddsmakers dangling the carrot in front of your face, inviting you to bite on the obvious, acclimated favorite. Buyer beware.

Houston has one win, no buzz, and is completely under the radar here, which is exactly how we like it. Seven of these two teams' combined 10 games have stayed under the total, so expect the usual London rock fight, decided by one possession late. In that kind of game we will take the points with the quarterback who is not turning the ball over, especially with Jacksonville sitting at 2-6 against the spread in the game before its bye and Houston at 4-1-1 against the spread in the second of back-to-back division games. The Texans winning this outright would not surprise us in the least. The points are just the safety net. Recommendation: Houston +2½

Tennessee +6½ over Indianapolis

1:00 PM EST. This is not appointment television, and that is exactly the point. Tennessee is winless, the two quarterbacks in this game sit 26th and 27th in QBR, and nobody outside of the two fan bases is going to voluntarily watch a snap of it. Good. The games the betting public leaves for dead are very often the games where the points are worth the most, because nobody is pushing this number around with enthusiasm. It is just sitting there, on a team nobody wants, in a game nobody cares about.

Let's get the obvious out of the way first, because we are not going to insult you by pretending Tennessee is secretly good. The Titans are 0-5, they have scored 58 points in five games, they still have not scored 20 in any single game, and they just got shut down 26-3 by Houston. Their offense ranks last or near-last just about everywhere you look. None of that is the argument. There is a big difference between being the underdog and being asked to go out and win a game, and there is an even bigger difference on the other side, between being the better team and being trustworthy enough to lay almost a touchdown. Indianapolis is the second one we are arguing with, not the first.

The Colts are 2-3, they have established absolutely nothing, and their entire offense has one name on it: Jonathan Taylor. He has six rushing touchdowns already and he has carried the ball more times by himself than Tennessee's top three rushers combined. Everything Indianapolis does runs through him, which also means everything falls apart if you can slow him down even a little. Tennessee's defense, led up front by Jeffery Simmons, has at least held up against the run, and if the Titans can force this game into Daniel Jones' hands, Indianapolis becomes a very shaky favorite in a hurry. This is a Colts team that has leaned heavily on its kicker, that has given up explosive plays all season, and that still has not proven it can put a bad team away. Laying 6½ with a team like that is a massive risk, and frankly, 6½ might be the best underdog number on the entire board. Dogs at this price do not just cover more often than people think. They win these games outright more often than people think.

So picture how this actually plays out. Both teams are brutal on third down, Tennessee cannot finish drives in the red zone, Indianapolis cannot pull away from anybody, and the total is sitting down in the low 40s for a reason. Punts, field goals, a couple of stalled drives inside the 20, and a fourth quarter where the Colts are trying to protect a lead instead of extend one. That is a 20-17 or 17-13 type of game all day long, and Tennessee has already covered twice this season playing this exact brand of ugly football. We are not telling you the Titans are the better team. We are telling you the Colts have done nothing to earn this kind of respect. Take the points, and do not apologize for it. Recommendation: Tennessee +6½

Philadelphia +3½ over Carolina

1:00 PM EST. The Philadelphia Eagles are home underdogs. At the Linc. To the Panthers. Say that to an Eagles fan back in August and they'd have laughed you out of the building. Then Jalen Hurts went down, Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith started barely practicing, the offensive line got reshuffled, and suddenly it's the Tanner McKee Experience on a team that has lost three in a row and sits at 2-3 with its season wobbling. That is the version of Philadelphia the market is pricing here, and that is exactly why we're interested in the home dog at +3½.

Because look at what you're being asked to buy on the other side. Carolina looks like a very decent football team all of a sudden. The Panthers are 2-2, they put up 37 points even in that wild opening-week loss to Chicago, they beat up Atlanta, and then they went out in their last game before the bye and beat Detroit 32-26 on Sunday Night Football, as an underdog, in prime time, in a game everybody watched. Bryce Young is protecting the football, Tetairoa McMillan is putting up huge numbers, the points are flowing, and everything about Carolina is trending in the right direction. Rest, momentum, confidence, a quarterback the crowd was chanting MVP for. It's all there, and it's all already in this price.

Now for the part of the matchup nobody is talking about while they're busy burying Philadelphia. Carolina's two starting cornerbacks are both on injured reserve. Both of them. The replacements include a rookie and a corner who just got picked on relentlessly by Detroit, and McKee doesn't need to be a hero against that secondary. He needs to be competent, at home, while Philadelphia's pass rush goes after Young on the road. Yes, the scheduling spot is ugly, with Carolina coming off its bye and the Eagles dragging themselves back from London, and yes, there's all kinds of talk about how banged up and mentally finished this Eagles team is. We don't pay attention to that noise. What we know for sure is much simpler: the market is all the way down on Philadelphia and all the way up on Carolina, at the exact same time.

This is not a game we have a ton of interest in, and we're not going to dress it up as one of the strongest plays on the board. But interest and correctness are two different things. When one team just won the most visible game of its season in prime time and the other just got lost overseas, when one team's stock has peaked and the other has been left for dead, the ugly home underdog with the hook over a field goal is the correct side to be on. We're not betting on Philadelphia being a good football team right now. We're betting on weirdness, desperation, and a number that has overreacted to everything everybody just saw. Recommendation: Philadelphia +3½

Chicago -1½ over Atlanta

1:00 PM EST. Welcome to the mystery-meat bowl. Caleb Williams (hamstring) has "all signs pointing" to a return, Michael Penix Jr. (ribs) is "expected barring setback" — and Vegas yo-yo'd this line from Bears -3 to -1.5 on pure quarterback fog. A record four different Falcons quarterbacks have thrown interceptions in five games. Four. Including Tua Tagovailoa, who wandered in off the street last week and immediately threw the overtime pick. That position is held together with duct tape.

What isn't uncertain: both teams run it down your throat. Chicago owns the league's #1 rushing offense (173.2 a game), Atlanta's #2 (166.8, with Bijan Robinson at 580 yards). The problem for the Falcons is the Bears can't stop the run either (27th in EPA per rush), so Bijan might go for 200 while everyone watches. But Atlanta is 0-2 at home — winless in their own building — and dome or not, that stink follows you.

If Caleb plays, Chicago has the better roster, the better run game, and a defense that survives even without the suspended Montez Sweat. If it's Bagent or Keenum again... well, Atlanta's quarterback room is somehow in worse shape. Lay the 1.5 with the team that isn't starting a science experiment under center. Probably.

And if you need a couple more reasons, look at how Atlanta's last game ended. The Falcons took Baltimore to overtime on Sunday night and, with the game right there to be won, their defense played matador when it mattered most, as backup quarterback Tyler Huntley took the Ravens 71 yards in just 40 seconds on six straight plays to turn the lights out. Chicago's defense has been doing the opposite, allowing just nine third-down conversions across its first four games, and the trends all lean the same way here too, with the Bears 5-0-1 against the spread against the NFC South and the Falcons just 2-5 against the spread against the NFC North. Recommendation: Chicago -1½

New Orleans -1½  over NY Giants

1:00 PM EST. It's the Jameis Winston revenge game, baby. Jameis is 3-0 against the spread since taking over the 3-1-1 Giants — first place in the NFC East, somehow — throwing for 326 yards and three touchdowns in back-to-back games. Now he faces the franchise that benched him. He will throw for 400 yards or four interceptions on Sunday. Possibly both. Possibly in the same quarter. You cannot look away.

The case for the Saints is mostly about who's missing on the other sideline: the Giants are down Abdul Carter (doubtful), Tyler Nubin (out), and Colton Hood (out). New Orleans' only win this year came on the road, and this is their first road game in a month — which might help, since they've been awful at home anyway. Tyler Shough (96 yards, two picks, a 38.1 rating last week) literally cannot be worse. That's not analysis, that's math.

This spread has flipped sides three times this week and the total is 45.5, which tells you the market has no idea either. So take the Saints -1.5, because the Giants are the most fraudulent 3-1-1 team in recent memory and Jameis giveth, but mostly he taketh away. Saints by a field goal, everybody booing, everybody entertained.

And about that 3-1-1 record — it might be the most misleading record in football. The Giants' stock is way higher than it should be, while New Orleans' stock has hit rock bottom, on a team that was supposed to be moving up and had a real chance to win the NFC South and instead sits at the bottom of it with one win. Stock high on one side, stock low on the other. That is exactly the type of game we're interested in. Look under the hood at how New York got here. They beat Tennessee 12-7 without scoring a touchdown, in a game they had no business winning. They beat an Arizona team they had no business beating. Then last week they escaped Washington with a 27-27 tie in overtime in a game that was over — the Commanders had the ball at the Giants' 24 with 12 seconds left in overtime, no reason in the world not to kick the winning field goal, and instead ran another play like complete idiots, took a sack, and couldn't get the ball spiked before time ran out.

New York could easily be on an 0-for run right now instead of sitting in first place. Their other win came in Week 1 against a Dallas team that looks like dog shit right now, and the one genuinely good team they've played, the Rams, buried them. So if you bet the Giants this week, understand what you're doing: you may win, but you are very, very late to that party. The smoke-and-mirrors act is about to blow up. Recommendation: New Orleans -1½

Cleveland +4½ over Baltimore

1:00 PM EST. The entire move is Lamar Jackson's ankle. He hasn't practiced all week, he's officially "day-to-day," and the line touched -5.5 before easing off. You're either getting a gimpy Lamar or Tyler Huntley, and neither one scares anyone in October.

Huntley was fine in relief (three touchdowns, no turnovers in the overtime win at Atlanta), but fine doesn't cover 4.5 on the road in a divisional rock fight. And here's the scary part for Cleveland backers: the Ravens blitz 42.8% of the time (sixth-most), and Deshaun Watson completes 52% against the blitz with an NFL-high 19 sacks taken. He's going to be running for his life from the opening snap. Just survive, Deshaun. That's the whole game plan.

Divisional home dogs getting more than a field goal are one of the sport's most reliable welfare programs. Henry will get his, the Browns' defense bends at home, and this ends 20-17 either way. Take the 4.5 — or your 3.5, you beautiful early bird — and sweat the fourth quarter like the rest of us.

Now, we should be clear about what Baltimore is when Lamar is right, because those numbers are genuinely scary. The Ravens are piling up almost 400 yards a game, they run it better than almost anybody behind Derrick Henry and his seven touchdowns, and Lamar himself leads the league in yards per attempt and passer rating, with Zay Flowers averaging over 100 yards a game down the field. That's the offense this price is built on. But that's exactly the point — those are Lamar's numbers, and Baltimore either won't have him or won't have all of him, a week after it needed overtime and a rally from 14-6 down just to get past Atlanta without him. Cleveland's pass rush, which already has 16 sacks, has to get home, the run defense has to survive Henry, and the history here says the Dawg Pound is where Baltimore covers go to die: the Browns are 6-0 against the spread in their last six division home games, the road team in this series has failed to cover five straight, and Cleveland is back home after that 17-12 loss to the Jets with a triple-revenge spot in its pocket. Add it all up and yes, we'll say it out loud — we smell a possible upset here. Recommendation: Cleveland +4.5

NY Jets +7½ over New England

1:00 PM EST. The market opened New England -9.5 and keeps begging people to take the Jets, and nobody wants to. I get it. It's the Jets. But Geno Smith has thrown six touchdowns and zero interceptions this year. Zero interceptions. For the New York Jets. In the year 2026. Let that sink in.

Drake Maye is the MVP hype train (AFC Offensive Player of the Week, seven touchdowns to one pick the last two games), but he hasn't seen a pass defense like this one — the Jets' secondary is legitimately among the league's best, the one unit built to ruin his Sunday. Garrett Wilson is a problem (31 catches, 374 yards), and New England's supporting cast is held together with athletic tape: Henderson likely out, A.J. Brown on IR, Gonzalez and Davis questionable.

Divisional road dogs with a real defense are the cover machine the books hope you ignore. The total is 43.5, the Pats just needed everything to go right to hang 45 on the Raiders, and 7.5 is a lot of chalk for a team still figuring out who it is. Jets keep it inside the number. Probably. It's the Jets, so no promises — but the math says yes.

And here's the part nobody in New England seems to be factoring in, because they're all too busy planning the parade route. Go read what the Patriots' own people are saying about this game. Their beat writers are calling 31-13, 38-13, 34-14 — not wins, massacres — and one of them is already talking about resting the starters in the fourth quarter to get ready for what's next. What's next is the problem. New England has to go to Chicago on Thursday night, in prime time, four days after this game. That's a short week, a road trip, and a much bigger stage sitting right there on the horizon while a division rival they think they can steamroll is standing in front of them on Sunday. Even if the Patriots are comfortably in front late, do you really think they're keeping their foot on the gas with Chicago looming on Thursday? That is how back doors get left wide open, and with +7.5 in your pocket, a sleepy fourth quarter is all you're asking for. The entire building in Foxborough is looking past the Jets. That's precisely when you take the points with the Jets. Recommendation: NY Jets +7½

Tampa Bay +2½ over Pittsburgh

1:00 PM EST. We need to talk about this one honestly, because our first look at this game had us on Pittsburgh, and the closer we looked at it, the more we changed our minds. Yes, Aaron Rodgers is 42 years old and just became the first Steeler since Terry Bradshaw in 1982 to throw three or more touchdowns in three straight games, capped off by Pittsburgh's win over Indianapolis last week. Father Time keeps calling and Rodgers keeps sending him to voicemail. We get the story. The market is buying that story at full price, and Pittsburgh's stock is as high right now as it has been all season. That's exactly what has us looking the other way.

Because on the other sideline is a team the market is absolutely sick of. Tampa Bay is 1-9 against the spread in its last 10 games. Nine times in 10, people have bet this team and ripped up the ticket, and bettors have long memories for that kind of thing. So when the Bucs went into Dallas last week and not only covered but won the game outright, how did the market explain it? Not by giving Tampa Bay any credit for improving. No, it was all about Dallas being a brutal football team. Maybe that's even fair — a team doesn't lose nine of 10 against the spread and suddenly get good in one week. But here's the flip side of that: a team that has burned that many tickets gets priced like it's dead, and Tampa Bay cannot be a home underdog here against a Pittsburgh team whose stock is inflated and who, frankly, aren't a very good football team themselves.

The rookie is part of the reason we can live with this ticket. His name is Jalon Daniels — get used to saying it — and he has looked a little better every time out. He led that upset in Dallas, Tampa Bay's first four losses were all by a touchdown or less, and the Bucs have had 10 days to get him ready for this one after playing on Thursday night. Tampa Bay also holds the ball, averaging almost 32 minutes of possession a game, which is exactly how a home dog shortens a game, keeps Rodgers standing on the sideline, and turns this into the kind of low-possession coin flip where +2½ at home matters.

And finally, a word about the noise, because you're going to hear plenty of it this week. You'll be told Pittsburgh is a perfect 11-0 against the spread in its last 11 games against NFC South teams. You'll be told Tampa Bay is 1-13 against the spread before it plays Carolina and winless against the spread lately against the AFC North. Some newsletter will put it in big letters and call it a clincher. Folks, that guy is right about once in 100 games, and goofy trends built on rosters and quarterbacks who aren't even in this game anymore are not a reason to lay points on the road with a team the public has fallen in love with. That's not handicapping, that's a sales pitch. We'll take the team at home that nobody wants to bet, getting points, against the team whose stock just peaked. Recommendation: Tampa Bay +2½

LA Rams -11.5 over Arizona

4:05 PM EST. This is the biggest spread of the week, and frankly it might not be big enough. Arizona gives up 32.4 points a game, worst in the NFL. They've allowed 31-plus in four straight. They just traded Marvin Harrison Jr. to Houston for Day 3 picks. This isn't a rebuild, it's a yard sale with a football team attached.

Brissett's blind side is now a seventh-round rookie (Paris Johnson's biceps exploded onto IR), Conner and Benson are both on IR, and the run game produces 91.6 yards a week — total, as a team, on a good day. The Rams just hung 454 yards and 33 first downs on Buffalo and lost because their kicker got cut midweek and they committed 11 penalties. That's fixable. Arizona's roster is not.

McVay is 33-23 against the spread off a loss. Short week, home game, double-digit spread against a team openly waving the white flag. Lay the 11.5 and go make a sandwich — this one's decided by halftime.

And the raw numbers behind that yard sale are even uglier than the jokes. Arizona is 1-4, it has lost four in a row, and last week Detroit hung 45 points and over 400 yards on this defense while the Cardinals' ground game managed almost nothing. Meanwhile Los Angeles, for all its defensive problems in that Monday night overtime loss to Buffalo, still put up 34 points, with Matthew Stafford throwing for 383 yards and three touchdowns, Puka Nacua catching everything in sight, and Davante Adams scoring twice. That's been the pattern all season: Stafford is already over 1,500 passing yards, Adams and Nacua are both producing, and this is the league's most productive offense walking into a home game against its worst scoring defense. Normally we're the last people in the world who want to lay the biggest number on the board, but there are exceptions, and this is one of them. And that loss to Buffalo matters more than people think. If the Rams had won that game on Monday night, we'd be far more reluctant to lay this type of lumber here. A favorite coming off a big prime-time win, feeling good about itself and looking at a 1-4 team on a short week is exactly the kind of favorite we love to go against, because that's where complacency creeps in. That's not this team. Los Angeles lost that game, in overtime, a game it piled up all those yards in and still found a way to give away, and at 2-3 the Rams are in no shape whatsoever to take anyone lightly. They can't afford to sleepwalk through anybody. They need this win, they need it convincingly, and a team that just got embarrassed on Monday night is a whole lot less likely to call off the dogs in the second half than a team riding high. Against a team trading away pieces and starting backups all over the field, that's a dangerous combination. This shouldn't be close at any point in the second half. Recommendation: LA Rams -11½

LA Chargers +8½ over Kansas City

4:25 PM EST. Yes, the Chargers are 0-5 — worst start since 2003. Yes, Justin Herbert has nine turnovers behind four rookie starters on the offensive line, which is less a depth chart and more a missing persons report. This is the ugliest ticket on the board. That's exactly why it cashes.

Kansas City is 4-0 and sleepwalking through October: 1-5 against the spread in their last six games off a bye, Rashee Rice is doubtful (two straight DNPs), and Mahomes' knee is being "managed," which is code for "we'll tell you in January." The Chiefs win these divisional games 24-17 and go home. They do not cover 8.5 against opponents who see them twice a year and aren't impressed.

The total dropped three full points to 42.5 because nobody trusts either offense to show up. Ugly, low-scoring, divisional, big underdog — the cover parlay writes itself. Chargers +8.5. Hold your nose and collect.

This one is as good as it gets for us, because it checks every single box we look for. The point spread is supposed to be the great equalizer, and understand what it's being asked to equalize here. The Chargers are not just 0-5, they're 0-5 against the spread. There is not a single person on planet Earth who has cashed a point-spread ticket on the Chargers this year. Nobody. Nobody is running to the window to bet them now, either. Across from them is an undefeated Kansas City team, so you have unbeaten against winless, and the winless team hasn't covered a single number. Of course the oddsmakers are forced to inflate this price — they have no choice. Now, Kansas City may indeed go out and crush the Chargers on Sunday. That's possible. But we're not in the prediction business, we're in the buy low, sell high business. If you fade the Chargers this week, you might even cash that ticket, but man, are you ever late to that party. The time to fade Los Angeles was Week 1, when their stock was high, when they were coming into the year as a favorite to win this division. That ship sailed five weeks ago. The time to fade the Chargers is not now. Now is the time to back them. Recommendation: LA Chargers +8.5

Las Vegas +5½ over Buffalo

4:25 PM EST. Buffalo scores 32.8 a game (tied for first!) and gives up 28.2 (27th in DVOA). The Bills aren't a football team, they're a track meet that issues helmets. The total is 53.5 and climbing, which tells you everything about how Sunday's going.

Buffalo's on a short week after a 78-snap overtime war on Monday night, then traveled cross-country. They stayed out west, which helps the legs and does nothing for the tackling. James Cook against the 28th-ranked run defense is the nightmare fuel — but Kirk Cousins just threw for 365 on Kansas City, and the Raiders are 4-1 against the spread with a quarterback who isn't afraid of a shootout.

In a game Vegas expects to land in the 30s, you take the home dog getting nearly a touchdown. Buffalo probably wins 34-31 and the Raiders cover with room to spare. Points, points, points — and the dog.

And don't overlook the one area where Las Vegas actually has the edge in this game: the football itself. The Raiders have forced 10 turnovers already, they're +3 in turnover margin, and Maxx Crosby is leading a pass rush that has 13 sacks and lives in opposing backfields. Buffalo, for all its firepower, comes in at -4 in turnover margin, with a defense that has been the soft spot on this team all season. Now layer the spot on top of it. The Bills just won one of the wildest games of the year on Monday night, in overtime, against the Rams, and everybody watched it. The Raiders just got buried 45-17 by New England, and everybody saw that too. One stock is peaking, the other is in the gutter, and in a high-scoring game where the home team can force a couple of mistakes and trade touchdowns all afternoon, that gap in perception is exactly what +5½ is paying you for. Recommendation: Las Vegas +5½

Dallas +1½ over Green Bay 

8:20 PM EST. This one is not about X's and O's, so we're not going to pretend it is. This one is buy low, sell high in its purest form. Dallas played at home last Thursday night, in prime time, in front of everybody, and lost outright to Tampa Bay as a 9½-point favorite. You cannot fall any flatter than that, and you cannot do it in front of a bigger audience. The Cowboys' stock did not just dip after that game. It hit rock bottom.

Think about the damage that loss did way beyond a regular betting slip. Dallas was the survivor-pool pick all over the country. Dallas was teased down in every teaser on the board. One game, one Thursday night, and tickets were being ripped up everywhere. People are not just down on the Cowboys, they are disgusted with them, and disgusted bettors do not go running back to the window to bet the same team again the following week. They do the opposite.

Green Bay is the mirror image. The whole world faded the Packers at home last week against Chicago. The Bears were the small favorite, Green Bay had looked awful for weeks, and fading them felt like the easiest play on the board. Then Green Bay went out and buried Chicago, and just like that the Packers went from a team nobody would touch to a team everybody suddenly believes in again. So now put the two together and you get the double zig-zag: the bettors who lost on Dallas last week are flipping to Green Bay, and the bettors who lost fading Green Bay last week are flipping to Green Bay too. Everybody ends up in the same place, for two completely different reasons.

That is exactly the spot we live for. One team's price is being dragged down by a prime-time embarrassment that the entire betting public lived through together, and the other team's price is being propped up by one result that flipped the entire perception in a single afternoon. Forget the matchups, forget who is supposed to win the stats battle. When a game checks this many psychology boxes at once — buy low on the team nobody wants, sell high on the team everybody just fell in love with, and a double zig-zag pushing money the other way — it becomes one of the strongest wagers on the board. Recommendation: Dallas +1½

Washington +7½ over San Francisco

8:15 PM EST. Welcome to the bailout game. This is the last game of the week, it's on Monday night, it's on television all by itself, and after whatever carnage Sunday leaves behind, this is the game where everybody who is stuck goes looking to get even. So ask yourself a simple question: when that money shows up on Monday night, who is the market going to trust? A 1-3-1 Washington team that just found a way not to beat the Giants, or the undefeated, proven commodity from San Francisco that has been destroying everything in its path? You already know the answer, and so do the oddsmakers, and that is precisely why this number is 7½ instead of something honest.

Let's give San Francisco its due, because the résumé is real. The 49ers are 5-0, they're 4-1 against the spread, Brock Purdy is playing like an MVP with 13 touchdowns against just two interceptions, Christian McCaffrey and Mike Evans are powering an offense scoring almost 31 points a game, and the defense is giving up less than 19. They went into Seattle and beat the defending champions in their own building. Their stock is not just high, it is through the roof, about as high as a team's stock can possibly get five weeks into a season. And on the other side you have the NFC East, which just keeps getting worse and worse in front of the entire country, with Washington's defense giving up almost 30 points a game as Exhibit A. That gap in perception is the product being sold here.

Washington is wobbling, no question. The Commanders are 1-3-1, they blew a two-touchdown lead against the Giants and then had a game they had won taken away by their own coaching staff and clock management in overtime, and sustaining anything for four quarters against this 49ers team is a tall order. But the Commanders are not toothless, and that's the part that matters when you're getting more than a touchdown. Jayden Daniels ran for 103 yards and two touchdowns against New York, and a quarterback who can do that is a quarterback who can keep drives alive, extend plays, and walk through a back door late against a defense that has already put the game away in its own mind. San Francisco doesn't have to lose this game for us to cash. San Francisco has to win it by more than a touchdown, on a Monday night, in the one game everybody left standing will be chasing on.

And if you go digging for reasons to lay it with the favorite, you'll find the trend guys waiting for you, right on schedule, telling you Washington is 1-8 against the spread after playing the Giants and San Francisco is perfect against the spread against the NFC East. That's the name of that tune, and we've heard it before. On Monday night, in the bailout game, with an undefeated team the whole country trusts laying a hook over a touchdown against a team nobody wants any part of, we know exactly which side the public is on, and we know exactly which side we want to be on. Give us the ugly dog and the 7½, and let the chasers chase. Recommendation: Washington +7½