Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

St. Louis +230 over Philadelphia

Hunter Dobbins (RHP- St. Louis) — 3.50 ERA

Jesús Luzardo (LHP- Philadelphia) — 3.24 ERA

6:40 PM EST. This is one of those games where the number looks considerably more interesting than the matchup itself. Jesús Luzardo has been very good for Philadelphia with a 3.24 ERA, but Hunter Dobbins is right there at 3.50 for St. Louis. We are not talking about a situation where one club has a clear-cut starting pitching advantage. The ERA difference is only 0.26, and that makes a price north of +200 on the Cardinals difficult for us to understand.

Dobbins has done a good job of limiting damage, and the right-hander has been able to work himself through innings without allowing games to get away from him. Luzardo brings the higher strikeout ceiling, which is certainly worth acknowledging, but Philadelphia is being priced as though the difference between these two starters is much greater than it actually is. From our perspective, the Cardinals do not need to have the better pitcher tonight; they need Dobbins to pitch to his current level and keep the game within striking distance.

That is what makes the St. Louis price so appealing. We are getting a substantial return in a matchup where both starting pitchers have ERA's in the low-to-mid threes and neither side has a commanding advantage on the mound. At this price, we are not asking St. Louis to dominate Philadelphia. We are simply betting that the Cardinals are capable of winning a competitive baseball game often enough to make a price this large worth taking.

This is a pure value play for us. Dobbins and Luzardo are much closer statistically than the +200-plus price suggests, and we are willing to take the Cardinals outright rather than pay the premium on Philadelphia. The number is simply too high on St. Louis in what we expect to be a very competitive game.

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