Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Baltimore -1½ +170 over Tampa Bay

Trevor Rogers (LHP- Baltimore) — 4.15 ERA

Freddy Peralta (RHP- Tampa Bay) — 5.27 ERA

7:15 PM EST. We are going back to Baltimore here, and the starting-pitching numbers give us a legitimate reason to lay the run line. Trevor Rogers has quietly put together a solid stretch of work, and his 4.15 ERA is considerably better than Freddy Peralta's 5.27. The bigger number for us is the WHIP, where Rogers sits at 1.249 compared with 1.477 for Peralta. That tells us Rogers has been doing a much better job of keeping traffic off the bases, and that is exactly what we want from a pitcher backing a run-line position.

Peralta's strikeout rate is the one area that stands out in his favour, but the strikeouts have not translated into the type of run prevention we expect from a pitcher carrying his current price. He is averaging 8.6 K/9, compared with 7.7 for Rogers, yet the Tampa Bay right-hander has still allowed considerably more baserunners. That is the analytical angle we are interested in. Strikeouts are important, but walks, hits and overall traffic ultimately determine how much pressure a pitcher puts on his own team.

Rogers is limiting the damage more effectively, while Peralta is giving opposing hitters more opportunities.

We are taking Baltimore on the run line. The Orioles have the better ERA, the better WHIP and the more favorable walk profile from the starting pitchers, while Peralta's superior strikeout rate has not translated into comparable run prevention. This is the type of matchup where we are willing to lay the extra run because Rogers gives Baltimore a much better foundation, and we trust the Orioles to take advantage of Peralta's current struggles and win this one by multiple

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