Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Philadelphia -1½ +185 over Pittsburgh

Aaron Nola (RHP - PHI) – 5.58 ERA vs. Braxton Ashcraft (RHP - PIT) – 3.07 ERA

6:40 PM EST. On paper, Braxton Ashcraft has been the more consistent starter, but this matchup sets up well for Philadelphia to beat them up tonight. Aaron Nola's 5.58 ERA is inflated by an unusually high 1.90 HR/9, yet several underlying metrics suggest he's pitched better than the surface numbers indicate. Nola owns a 9.15 K/9, 3.01 BB/9, and a 4.27 xERA, while his strikeout ability continues to give him the upside to dominate lineups capable of chasing pitches out of the zone. Philadelphia's offense has consistently been among baseball's most dangerous against right-handed pitching, giving Nola plenty of run support even when he isn't at his sharpest.

Ashcraft has enjoyed an excellent season with a 3.07 ERA, 2.87 xERA, 2.83 FIP, and an impressive 9.96 K/9 across 96.2 innings. He's limited opponents to just 0.74 home runs per nine innings while issuing only 2.05 walks per nine, making him one of Pittsburgh's biggest surprises. However, Philadelphia presents a much different challenge than most opponents. The Phillies feature power throughout the lineup, rank near the top of the league in extra-base hits, and possess enough left-handed bats to challenge Ashcraft's ability to work deep into the game. Even quality pitchers have struggled to silence this offense for nine innings.

The biggest edge belongs to Philadelphia's lineup and overall roster depth. The Phillies continue to generate one of the league's highest run totals while producing consistent hard contact, whereas Pittsburgh's offense has struggled to match elite teams punch-for-punch. If Nola can simply deliver a quality outing of six innings while keeping the ball in the yard, Philadelphia's offense has the firepower to create separation against Pittsburgh's pitching staff. Backing the Phillies on the run line is the play, their offensive ceiling is significantly higher, making them a strong road favorite to win by multiple runs.

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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Minnesota +120 over Houston

Zebby Matthews (RHP - Minnesota) – 4.56 ERA vs. Peter Lambert (RHP - Houston) – 3.28 ERA

8:10 PM EST. Peter Lambert has been a pleasant surprise for Houston this season, posting a 3.28 ERA over 68.2 innings with 8.39 strikeouts per nine innings while limiting opponents to a .249 batting average. However, his recent form has been far less convincing. Lambert has delivered three poor-quality starts in his last five outings and, while his 3.40 ERA and 1.09 WHIP at home are solid, he now faces one of the hottest offenses in baseball. Minnesota has caught fire at the plate, averaging 6.1 runs per game during its recent surge while hitting .294 with an outstanding .834 OPS. When a lineup is producing that kind of contact and power, even a quality home starter can find himself in trouble.

Zebby Matthews has endured some growing pains, but his underlying numbers suggest there is room for improvement. The young right-hander owns a 4.56 ERA across 49.1 innings, but he has displayed excellent command with just 2.01 walks per nine innings while maintaining a respectable 7.11 strikeouts per nine. His biggest issue has been the long ball, allowing 1.82 home runs per nine innings, yet Houston hasn't consistently generated the type of offensive production needed to fully exploit that weakness. If Matthews keeps the ball in the yard, Minnesota's offense is more than capable of providing enough run support to put pressure on the Astros throughout the night.

The gap between these two starters is smaller than the betting line suggests. Minnesota enters swinging some of the hottest bats in baseball, while Houston is relying on Lambert to halt one of the league's most productive offenses despite his recent inconsistency. The Twins have been consistently putting runners on base, creating traffic and forcing opposing bullpens into extended work. With the hotter lineup, improving starting pitching, and plus-money value, Minnesota is worth backing as the road dog to steal another win in Houston.

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If a team you’ve selected goes up by the designated number of points that selection will be marked as WON in My Bets. Any remaining legs of the parlay will continue to run as normal.

Once a selection is marked as won under the Early Payout rules, it cannot be reversed, regardless of what happens later in the game.

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