Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Game 1 - ALDS

Chicago +155 over Cleveland

1:00 PM ET. We’re taking the White Sox at +155 in Game 1 of the ALDS. Chicago has been the hot hand, and at this price, there’s no reason to bail now. The White Sox have spent the entire season defying expectations, and the market is still asking us to take a significant premium to back them. In a playoff game where the pitching matchup and bullpens are considerably closer than this price suggests, +155 is plenty.

It would have been difficult to imagine Parker Messick and Hagen Smith starting Game 1 of the ALDS at the beginning of the season, for very different reasons. Messick was impressive in a limited sample in 2025, but figured to slot in behind Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee if Cleveland got this far. Smith spent most of this season in Double-A, where walks were a major issue, before eventually reaching the majors and working mostly in relief. However, Smith has two legitimate weapons in his fastball and slider, which account for more than 80% of his pitches. Chicago isn't asking him to work seven innings. He can attack Cleveland for as long as he's effective before turning things over to a bullpen built with several multi-inning options.

That's important because the perceived bullpen advantage for Cleveland isn't nearly as large as one might assume. In fact, by DRA-, Chicago's bullpen has the advantage. Grant Taylor, Bryan Hudson, Sean Newcomb and Jordan Hicks give Will Venable several ways to navigate the middle and late innings, while Smith, Noah Schultz, Newcomb and Taylor can all provide more than three outs when necessary. Cleveland still has one of baseball's elite relievers in Cade Smith, but the absence of Emmanuel Clase and Luis F. Ortiz changes the complexion of that bullpen. Chicago's pitching staff may be unconventional, but unconventional doesn't mean ineffective.

Cleveland also isn't bringing an intimidating offense into this series. The Guardians ranked 29th in DRC+, relying heavily on contact while producing very little power. Steven Kwan's tremendous second half helped drive Cleveland's surge, and José Ramírez remains dangerous, but this isn't a lineup that should have us running away from a +155 underdog. Chicago's offense has more swing-and-miss, particularly against a lefty like Messick, but it also possesses considerably more home-run potential. In a playoff game where one or two swings can decide everything, that matters.

Messick deserves respect. His velocity isn't overwhelming, but he has six pitches, excellent command and the ability to tunnel those offerings out of a repeatable release point. Cleveland is starting him for a reason, particularly against a Chicago lineup that leans heavily left-handed. But we're not being asked whether Messick is good. We're being asked whether Cleveland deserves to be priced as this substantial a favorite against a White Sox team whose bullpen grades well, whose pitching configuration can create difficult matchups and whose offense has enough power to change the game with one swing.

Chicago has been underestimated all season and we're not jumping off now because the calendar says October. The White Sox are the hot hand, they've earned their way here, and +155 implies roughly a 39% chance of winning. We see a matchup considerably more competitive than that price suggests.

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