Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Cleveland -1½ +105 over Colorado

Joey Cantillo (LHP- Cleveland) — 3.82 ERA

Tanner Gordon (RHP- Colorado) — 6.26 ERA

8:40 PM EST. The strikeout numbers give Cantillo an advantage we like. The Cleveland left-hander has shown a better ability to miss bats and work out of trouble, while Gordon's current strikeout profile does not provide much protection against the contact he is allowing. The 6.26 ERA is not simply an isolated number for us; it is an indication that Gordon has been putting too many runners on and has not consistently been able to finish hitters. That is a dangerous combination against a Cleveland lineup that should have opportunities to apply pressure.

Colorado needs Gordon to keep this game under control early, and that is asking a lot from a pitcher carrying an ERA well above five. Cantillo does not have to be spectacular for Cleveland to have the pitching advantage. He simply needs to give the Guardians a reasonable start and allow their offense to work against a Colorado starter who has been much easier to score against. From a numbers standpoint, that is the side of this matchup we want.

Cantillo has the better current ERA, the superior swing-and-miss profile and the more dependable overall numbers, while Gordon has not shown he can keep up. We are laying the runs with Cleveland and expecting the Guardians to separate as this game progresses. We are looking for some heavy bats tonight, and Cleveland to take the “W”

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