Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Athletics -1½ +130 over St. Louis

9:40 PM EST. J.T. Ginn (RHP, Athletics) is coming off the best start of his young career after shutting down Philadelphia for eight innings while allowing just one run with eight strikeouts and only one walk. Now he returns home to Sacramento, where the numbers have not been nearly as pretty, but there are signs that improvement is coming.

In two home starts this season, Ginn has allowed seven earned runs over 9.2 innings with nine walks, but the underlying profile remains encouraging. He owns a respectable 3.89 expected ERA along with an excellent 50% ground-ball rate. The biggest concern is the 10% K-BB%, which absolutely needs improvement, but this shapes up as a favorable matchup against a St. Louis lineup hitting just .235 against right-handed pitching this season.

Matthew Liberatore (LHP, St. Louis) continues to carry numbers that look far better on the surface than they do underneath. His strong first half last season completely unraveled after regression hit every category across the board. The strikeout ability disappeared, the walks and home runs increased sharply, and he struggled badly against left-handed hitters.

This year, Liberatore’s warning signs continue flashing everywhere. His swing-and-miss rate sits at just 6%, which is extremely weak by modern standards, while his strikeout rate sits under six strikeouts per nine innings. In today’s game, those are bottom-tier swing-and-miss numbers for a starting pitcher.

What’s really keeping him afloat is an unsustainably fortunate 84% strand rate. That kind of number almost always regresses. His 4.07 ERA already looks shaky enough, but the expected ERA of 4.85 suggests things could get significantly worse moving forward. Liberatore has just one loss in eight starts, but that record is largely a product of timing and fortune rather than dominance.

Meanwhile, Sacramento continues to play like a launching pad. Runs come quickly there, momentum swings happen fast, and games often get out of hand late. That makes the run line extremely attractive once again.

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