Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Washington +145 over Cincinnati

6:40 PM EST. Jake Irvin Jake Irvin (RHP - WSH) hasn’t posted eye-popping numbers this season with a 5.31 ERA, but his recent form has actually been far more competitive than the overall stats suggest. Irvin has done a decent job limiting hard contact over his last few outings and continues to give Washington length, which is important against a Cincinnati bullpen that has been unreliable in pressure spots. He’s also facing a Reds lineup that has been inconsistent offensively and still strikes out at a high rate against right-handed pitching. Irvin’s ability to work ahead in counts and generate soft contact gives Washington a legitimate chance to control this game early if he avoids the big inning.

Nick Lodolo Nick Lodolo (LHP - CIN) made his return from the injured list in his last start and looked rusty throughout. Lodolo surrendered four earned runs over 5.1 innings while allowing two home runs and generating only two strikeouts. His command looked solid early, but the underlying numbers were concerning. A 47% fly-ball rate combined with limited swing-and-miss stuff is a dangerous mix against a Washington lineup that has quietly crushed left-handed pitching this season. The Nationals are batting .267 against southpaws with a strong 119 wRC+, showing this offense is far more dangerous in these matchups than the market gives them credit for. Washington’s lineup has also become much tougher top-to-bottom with CJ Abrams, Lane Thomas and Keibert Ruiz consistently putting pressure on opposing pitchers.

This looks like another spot where Washington is undervalued because the betting market continues to downgrade the Nationals automatically on the road. Cincinnati has not played well consistently enough to justify laying this type of number, especially with Lodolo still trying to regain rhythm after missing time. The Reds bullpen remains shaky, while Washington has shown the ability to manufacture runs, steal bases and create chaos offensively against left-handed pitching. If Lodolo continues giving up elevated contact, Great American Ball Park can turn dangerous in a hurry. Washington has the better matchup offensively in this game and the plus-money value is too good to ignore. The play is the Nationals outright.

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