Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Chicago+100 over Kansas City

7:40 PM EST. Noah Schultz (LHP - CWS) is coming off a rough outing against the Angels where he allowed seven earned runs in just 3.2 innings, but there are still reasons to believe the young left-hander can bounce back here. Schultz owns a 4.68 ERA through five starts, but his underlying metrics suggest he has pitched better than the raw numbers indicate. He’s striking out hitters at a respectable 21% clip and generating enough swing-and-miss stuff to keep offenses uncomfortable. The biggest issue has been command, as his 15% walk rate continues to create trouble in high-leverage spots. Still, this is a favorable matchup against a Kansas City lineup batting just .228 against left-handed pitching this season, which gives Schultz a chance to settle in and attack more aggressively early in counts.

Seth Lugo (RHP - KC) has been steady once again for the Royals with a 3.26 ERA and typically gives Kansas City quality innings every time he takes the ball. The problem is that the Royals offense continues to struggle producing consistent run support, especially on the road. Kansas City remains one of the weaker offensive teams in baseball against left-handed pitching and they often rely heavily on small ball and timely hitting rather than power. Chicago’s lineup has quietly shown more life at home recently and the White Sox have been far more competitive in games where their pitching staff can keep them within striking distance early.

Schultz’s upside is still significant and Kansas City simply hasn’t hit left-handed pitching consistently enough to justify being trusted on the road at this price. If Schultz limits the walks, his strikeout stuff should play well against a Royals lineup lacking patience and power depth. The South Side also has the advantage of being at home where role players tend to contribute more offensively and where the White Sox bullpen has been more reliable. With the value sitting on the home side and Kansas City’s offense remaining inconsistent, Chicago on the moneyline is the play.

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