Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Philadelphia +198 over Washington

7:30 PM ET, Capital One Arena. Washington has been home for fifteen straight days, five games at Capital One Arena, and tonight is the last one before the road trip starts in Nashville tomorrow. This is a division rivalry, so nobody is sneaking up on anybody, but the spot is still the whole story: these are young guys with money in their pockets who have been stuck at home for over two weeks, and now they finally get to Nashville, a place they only get to once a year, away from the family and the wives and the girlfriends and the kids, just to hang out with the boys. Their minds are already on the road. They've been home too long and they cannot wait to get out of town.

Yes, Washington is in the better spot tonight, there's no question about that: rested since Saturday, at home, against a Philadelphia team playing its second game in two nights after an overtime loss to Columbus. But you're paying a massive price for it, and Washington is not that good to begin with. This is an extremely beatable team, and the standings gap makes them look a lot better than they are. Philadelphia started the season winless and then figured it out: three wins in their last five, over Ottawa, Colorado and Buffalo, a one-goal loss to Anaheim and an overtime loss to Columbus, points in four of their last five games. That's not a doormat anymore, that's a team playing its way out of a hole.

So the price is absurd. Laying that kind of number on Washington, a team that isn't much better than Philadelphia despite what the standings say, in a flat spot at the end of a fifteen-day homestand, against a dog that has found its game, is exactly how you get burned. The value is on Philly, at plus money, with a team that has nothing to lose and a favorite that already has one eye on Nashville..

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