Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Chicago +225 over Vegas 

10:30 PM EST. Connor Bedard being out matters. Let's get that out of the way immediately. Chicago is missing its best player and the centerpiece of everything it's trying to build, while Vegas gets the home opener against a team that finished with 72 points last season. That's exactly the type of setup that sends bettors racing toward the favorite without spending much time looking at the price. At +225, we're going the other way.

This is a market-overreaction play as much as anything else. Bedard's absence unquestionably lowers Chicago's ceiling, but the Blackhawks aren't Connor Bedard and 19 guys they found wandering around the parking lot. Chicago spent the offseason adding legitimate NHL experience around its young core. Patrick Kane is back, Bowen Byram and Ian Cole bring Stanley Cup experience, Tyler Bertuzzi remains part of the veteran group, and youngsters Frank Nazar and Artyom Levshunov are another year further along. There's also Anton Frondell and Roman Kantserov joining the mix. This is a deeper and more interesting roster than the one the market remembers from last season.

And last season wasn't entirely devoid of progress. Chicago finished 29-39-14 with 72 points, an 11-point improvement from the previous year. The underlying numbers were admittedly ugly. The Blackhawks were near the bottom of the league in shots, scoring chances and high-danger opportunities at both ends of the ice, while finishing with the second-fewest goals per game. Nobody is hiding from that. But that's also precisely why we're being offered +225 rather than +140 or +150.

The Bedard injury only adds another layer to that discount. There's a tendency in these situations for the market to price the missing superstar and then price him again through public perception. Bettors see Chicago without Bedard at Vegas and don't ask what number is too high. They just look for the button that says Golden Knights. We're not suggesting Chicago is unaffected by his absence. We're suggesting there comes a point where the adjustment becomes large enough that the underdog becomes the more attractive wager.

Patrick Kane's return is particularly interesting in that regard. He's no longer the player who carried Chicago through its championship years, but he's still an accomplished offensive player who can create and distribute the puck. Chicago brought him back specifically to provide some veteran skill around this young group. Byram gives the Blackhawks considerably more ability from the blue line, while Nazar is capable of assuming a larger offensive role. Bedard's production can't simply be replaced, but Chicago has more ways to absorb his absence than it did a year ago.

Vegas also gets all the Opening Night theater. The home crowd, the lights, the introductions and probably enough pregame nonsense to make you think they're handing out the Stanley Cup before the puck drops. Chicago gets the much simpler assignment: show up with virtually no expectations and try to ruin the party. There is no pressure attached to the Blackhawks tonight because practically nobody expects them to win.

That's important because we're dealing with one hockey game, not asking Chicago to finish ahead of Vegas over 82. Hockey produces enough variance on its own—goaltending, special teams, a couple of posts, a deflection off somebody's skate—that laying an enormous price in October isn't particularly appealing. At +225, the Blackhawks need to win this game only about 31% of the time to justify the wager. We're willing to take our chances that this particular matchup is closer to that threshold than the market suggests.

Bedard being out is the headline. The +225 is the handicap. Chicago has added experience, its young players continue to develop, and the market has given us an enormous number because we're backing an ugly road underdog without its biggest star.

That's fine with us. Sometimes the price dictates the play.

 Sportsinteraction

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

NY Rangers -1½ +240 over Boston

8:00 PM EST. Boston gets the home opener, the loud building, the new captain and enough ceremony to make you wonder whether we are here for a hockey game or the Academy Awards. Wonderful. Let them have the red carpet. We’re taking the Rangers to walk into TD Garden and ruin the evening. New York has spent the summer rebuilding the supporting cast around its established core, and this is a much deeper group than the one that spent last season wandering around looking for answers.

The biggest reason to take the pretty-looking number is Igor Shesterkin. He gives New York the luxury of playing a road game without needing to chase it from the opening faceoff. Boston can spend the first 20 minutes feeling wonderful about itself while Shesterkin quietly turns the Bruins' best opportunities into harmless souvenirs. The Rangers also have enough size and skill up front to make Boston pay once the game opens up. New York doesn't need a track meet; it needs a couple of mistakes from Boston and then it can make the Bruins spend the rest of the night chasing.

Boston is getting plenty of respect because last year's results are sitting right there on the page. Fine. Put them on the page and frame them. We’re interested in what happens tonight. The Bruins have a new captain, a home crowd expecting a celebration and a team that will be under pressure to provide the happy ending. New York has no such responsibility. The Rangers can walk into this building, play the spoiler and leave the Bruins explaining to the local media how, the introductions and the fancy opening-night video somehow ended with everybody going home miserable.

This is a shot, no question about it, and we love the number. Taking New York -1½ at the beefed-up price means we are asking the Rangers to do more than simply win, but that is precisely why we're getting paid properly. Shesterkin can steal stretches of this game, the Rangers have added depth and Boston has the burden of putting on the show. Give us the road team, give us the big number and let Boston keep the commemorative programs.

 Sportsinteraction

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Florida +105 over Carolina

5:00 PM EST. Florida walks into Carolina as the underdog, which is a nice little gift for us on Opening Night. The Panthers had a miserable regular season by their standards last year, and apparently that is all the market needs to see to write them off early. This is still a Florida team built to make life miserable for opponents, and adding Brady Tkachuk to a group that already knows how to play nasty hockey gives Paul Maurice another headache to throw at Carolina.

The Panthers have plenty of experience playing in these types of environments, and their physical style travels. Carolina is going to have to earn every inch of ice tonight, and Florida is more than happy to turn this into the kind of game where nobody has much fun.

There's another angle here that shouldn't be ignored, and that's the possibility of a Stanley Cup hangover in Carolina. This was an organization that spent years knocking on the door, getting close and hearing all about how it couldn't get over the hump. Then it finally happened. Carolina climbed the mountain and won the Stanley Cup. That's an enormous emotional release for an organization that had been chasing it for so long.

Now comes the difficult part that doesn't get nearly as much attention: turning the page and starting all over again. After the parade, the celebrations, the shortest summer in hockey and months of being treated like champions, suddenly you're back playing Game 1 of an 82-game regular season. The urgency simply isn't guaranteed to be there immediately. We've seen championship teams need time to rediscover that edge, and it wouldn't surprise us in the least if Carolina's hangover lasted several weeks—or even a couple of months.

Florida comes into this from the opposite direction. The Panthers have something to prove after an extremely disappointing regular season, while Carolina is coming off the ultimate high. One team spent the summer hearing how poorly it performed; the other spent it celebrating the Stanley Cup. On Opening Night, we'll take our chances with the team carrying the chip on its shoulder rather than the one carrying the banner.

The biggest mistake here is treating last season like it is still sitting in the dressing room. Florida has a different look, a different setup in goal and another big body joining the family business, but the identity remains intact. This team is at its best when the game gets uncomfortable, the temperature rises and the opponent starts wondering why every trip into the Florida zone feels like a trip to the dentist.

We're getting the Panthers plus money against a Carolina team that may require some time to come down from the greatest high this group has ever experienced. If there is a Stanley Cup hangover, Opening Night is exactly when we want to try to take advantage of it.

 Sportsinteraction