Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Florida -1½ +135 over Seattle

6:00 PM EST. Seattle's five-game road trip ends tonight in Florida, and the Kraken have saved the toughest test for last. This trip started on October 9 in Detroit and has been one long grind east — Washington, Philadelphia, an overtime loss in Tampa Bay on Thursday — and now they close it out against the Panthers. The final game of a long road trip is exactly when the cumulative wear shows up: nine days of hotels, flights and strange buildings, and one more game to get through before they finally go home.

The 5-2-1 record says Seattle is a good team. The 5-on-5 numbers say something else entirely. The Kraken own a Corsi share of 42.89 and an expected-goals share of 44.01 — bottom-of-the-league territory — yet their goals share is 62.50. That is a team living on finishing and goaltending luck, and that kind of profile does not travel well, especially at the end of a trip. Regression has been circling this team for two weeks, and tired legs against a heavy Florida forecheck is precisely where it tends to land.

Florida is 4-2-2, has won two straight at home — including a 3-2 overtime win over Vancouver on Thursday, when Brady Tkachuk scored all three — and the Panthers' own 5-on-5 profile is everything Seattle's is not: 56.70 Corsi, 55.33 expected goals, 54.76 scoring chances, and a 90.00 high-danger save percentage cleaning up what little gets through. Both teams last played Thursday, but Florida has been sleeping in its own beds since then while Seattle is finishing nine days on the road. Settled contender at home against a road-weary team whose record is built on smoke — that is a spot we will play every time.

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