Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

L.A. Kings -½ +105 over Boston

9:00 PM EST. Regulation only, Let us be clear about what this one is, because the Kings have not won a game yet: this is a schedule play, not a beauty contest. Boston played in Anaheim last night — and won — and now plays its second game in two nights up the freeway in Los Angeles. The Kings have not played since Tuesday, so they come in with three full days of rest against a team on a back-to-back tail at the end of a California swing. That is about as clean a rest mismatch as this league offers.

What makes Los Angeles playable, beyond the rest edge, is that they are not nearly as bad as 0-3-2 looks. At 5-on-5 the Kings carry a 53.10 Corsi share, a 55.62 expected-goals share and a 60.26 high-danger chance share — they are creating more than they allow. What has buried them is finishing: five goals on 5-on-5 all season, a high-danger shooting percentage of 8.70, and goaltending that has not held up its end. Boston's profile is the mirror image — an ordinary 51.17 expected-goals share propped up by a 70.37 goals share and a 93.62 high-danger save percentage. That goaltending crutch is a lot shakier tonight, with backup Michael DiPietro expected to start after Jeremy Swayman played last night.

The risks are real and we are not hiding from them. The Kings are missing Kevin Fiala, Mats Zuccarello and Alex Turcotte, Darcy Kuemper has been fighting it, and Boston has won three straight while scoring 17 goals in the process, with David Pastrnak already up to 12 points. If the Bruins were rested, we would not be having this conversation. They are not. A winless team at home, with three days of rest, real underlying numbers and a tired opponent on its backup goalie

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