Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Cincinnati -2½ -110 over Jacksonville

1:00 PM EST. Three weeks into an NFL season is just about the perfect time for the market to start believing it knows something. Jacksonville is 2-1 and just hung 35 points on New England, while Cincinnati is coming home after losing to Pittsburgh. The Jaguars are suddenly being treated like a team on the rise while the Bengals are being marked down. We're not buying that adjustment. At -2½, we're essentially being asked whether Cincinnati can win this game at home, and we're comfortable paying the small premium to find out

Jacksonville's start has been impressive on the scoreboard, but there are some warning signs underneath it. The Jaguars are scoring 27.3 points per game on only 314 yards per game, and they've been one of the biggest beneficiaries of turnovers through three weeks. Those extra possessions and short fields have helped make the offense look more dangerous than its overall production suggests. Trevor Lawrence has plenty of options, and Jacksonville may indeed be improved, but victories over Cleveland and New England aren't enough for us to suddenly treat the Jaguars as Cincinnati's equal on a neutral field.

The Bengals lost last week because they couldn't finish the job in Pittsburgh, not because Joe Burrow suddenly forgot how to play quarterback. Burrow went 28-of-37 for 282 yards with three touchdowns, and Cincinnati scored 27 points on the road. That's a perfectly respectable offensive performance. Now Burrow gets Jacksonville at home with Ja'Marr Chase and an offense capable of attacking a Jaguars defense that hasn't shown us enough to warrant this level of market confidence.

This looks much more like a buy-low Cincinnati, sell-high Jacksonville spot than an indication that these teams have crossed paths in the power ratings. Had this game been played before Jacksonville's 35-6 win and Cincinnati's loss at Pittsburgh, we'd almost certainly be dealing with a larger number. That's the price adjustment we're interested in. Jacksonville may eventually prove worthy of all the early-season enthusiasm, but we're not paying for it after three games. We'll take Burrow at home and lay less than a field goal. 

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