Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Miami +10 -110 over Minnesota

1:00 PM EST. Do you really want to be holding a Minnesota −10 ticket when it's 9-3 in the fourth quarter? Hell, we're not even sure we'd want Minnesota in a survivor pool this week, never mind asking them to win by 11. The Vikings are 3-0, their defense has been outstanding and their receivers are among the best in football. Wonderful. There's just one minor detail: Who the fuck is playing quarterback? Minnesota has spent the early part of this season treating the position like a deli counter. Take a number and somebody will eventually call your name. Second string, third string, Kyler Murray—at this point, we're half expecting Brett Favre to pull into the parking lot wearing Crocs.

Minnesota's 3-0 record has also covered up some pretty significant warts. Green Bay outplayed the Vikings for long stretches in Week 1 and was leading deep into the fourth quarter. Last week, Tampa Bay had an opportunity to take the lead late despite Baker Mayfield spending much of the afternoon giving the football away like Halloween candy. Minnesota keeps surviving these games, and every escape makes its record prettier and its stock more expensive. Now we're being asked to lay 10½ points with one of the least productive offenses in football. No thanks.

Miami is 0-3 and has lost every game by double digits, so nobody is going to feel particularly clever clicking the Dolphins button. They've also lost De'Von Achane for the season, which removes their most dangerous offensive weapon. We get it. Miami has problems. Lots of them. But we're not being asked to decide which team we'd rather own. We're being offered 10½ points against an undefeated team whose offense has done almost nothing to justify laying this kind of lumber. Malik Willis also brings mobility to the position, which at least gives Brian Flores something different to account for rather than allowing Minnesota's pass rush to tee off against a stationary target all afternoon.

This is where records become dangerous. One team says 3-0, the other says 0-3, and the natural reaction is to wonder why Minnesota isn't favored by 14. We're wondering the opposite. Why would anyone want to lay double digits with a Vikings team that could easily have lost two of its three games? Minnesota's defense may dominate. The Vikings may win again. They may even get to 4-0. But if this thing is 13-6, 12-3 or our personal favorite, 9-fucking-3, sometime in the fourth quarter, there is only one ticket we want in our pocket.  

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