Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

NY Giants +140 over Dallas

1:00 PM ET. This is peak Week 18 mispricing driven by brand, not substance. Dallas still carries the shine — and is coming off a Christmas Day win — but scratch the surface and this is a team actively pulling pieces off the board. Cutting Trevon Diggs isn’t just a headline grab; it’s a clear downgrade to an already leaky secondary, and it signals that Dallas is far more concerned with optics and internal housekeeping than finishing strong. Meanwhile, the market continues to treat the Cowboys like a playoff-caliber unit, even though they’re hovering around .500 and fielding one of the worst pass defenses in football.

That’s where New York comes in. The Giants aren’t playing for draft position anymore — they already told us that last week by throttling Las Vegas when losing would’ve helped. Rookie QB Jaxson Dart is getting real reps, real confidence, and real leash, and that’s dangerous against a defense allowing the most passing yards per game in the league and tied for the most passing touchdowns allowed. Dart doesn’t need to be perfect here. He just needs to be aggressive, and the matchup invites exactly that. Add in a pass rush that’s quietly heating up, led by Abdul Carter, and suddenly Dallas’ high-octane offense isn’t operating in a vacuum.

This is the classic end-of-season spot where the “better team” is priced on reputation while the underdog is actually playing freer, looser, and more honestly. Dallas wants style points and stat lines. New York wants to finish strong and keep building. At plus money, we’ll take the side with momentum, motivation, and the opponent whose flaws are being ignored by the number. Giants are live.

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