Posted Saturday at 8:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Sunday, January 18

Soldier Field, Chicago, IL

Chicago +4 over L.A. Rams

6:00 PM EST. Chicago catching points at home offers real value in a matchup the market is pricing too generously toward Los Angeles. Both teams survived scare games last week, but the way they did so matters. The Bears showed resilience, composure, and an ability to generate explosive plays late, while the Rams spent most of their game trying to figure out how Carolina stayed within arm’s reach for four quarters. Those are not equivalent performances, even if both ended in wins.

Weather will dominate the conversation because, breaking news, it gets cold in Chicago in January. While conditions should be frigid, early forecasts do not indicate extreme wind or heavy precipitation, which matters far more than the temperature itself. Soldier Field didn’t prevent points last week, as Chicago and Green Bay combined for 58, and the Rams’ recent defensive profile suggests they’re unlikely to clamp things down regardless. Over the past seven games, Los Angeles’ defense ranks in the bottom half of the league in efficiency, despite facing multiple bottom-tier offenses during that stretch.

The Rams’ issues go beyond weather and optics. This is a defense lacking depth, operating with one of the league’s lowest salary allocations, and showing signs of late-season attrition. Turnovers and penalties have quietly crept into their game, and Los Angeles has struggled to put teams away when given the chance. Meanwhile, Chicago has leaned into chaos, thriving in high-variance situations and repeatedly finding ways to stay alive long enough to strike late. That profile plays well when you’re catching points at home.

Ultimately, this is less about Chicago being perfect and more about the market overstating Los Angeles’ reliability. The Bears don’t need to dominate; they need to hang around, force mistakes, and let variance do its work — something they’ve done all season. With Chicago catching +4 at home in a game that projects competitiveness deep into the fourth quarter, the value sits squarely with the underdog.

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