Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Green Bay +12.5 over Minnesota

1:00 PM ET. This is one of those Week 18 spreads that only exists because the market can’t help itself. Green Bay has nothing to gain in the standings, Minnesota is at home, on a four-game heater, and “playing for momentum,” so the number gets pushed into blowout territory. That’s fine — except the Packers are still an NFL roster full of professionals, catching nearly two touchdowns in a divisional game. The public sees backups and checks out. Oddsmakers hang a tax-heavy number and dare you to take it.

Yes, Clayton Tune is starting, and no, Green Bay isn’t opening the playbook. That’s the point. This is a shortened, conservative game plan designed to get in, get out, and get healthy. Minnesota, meanwhile, has every incentive to put good things on tape for 2026, not to empty the clip. J.J. McCarthy is still learning on the fly, still prone to mistakes, and still piloting an offense missing key pieces. The Vikings want a clean win, not chaos — and that mindset rarely pairs well with covering inflated spreads.

Week 18 divisional games are graveyards for big numbers. Motivation is being mispriced, context is being ignored, and variance is your friend. Green Bay doesn’t need to win, or even look good. They just need to compete for four quarters — something divisional rivals almost always do. We’re not betting on upside here. We’re betting against a number that’s too big for the spot. Packers plus the points.

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