Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Dallas -1.5 over LA Chargers

4:25 PM ET. This is one of those numbers that looks fair on the surface, but feels a little lazy once you zoom out. Yes, the Chargers are 10-4 and yes, their defense is playing lights-out football right now. That’s baked into the price. What isn’t being priced properly is game script and urgency. The Dallas Cowboys are effectively in playoff mode already. There is no scoreboard-watching scenario here — win or go home. That desperation usually scares bettors, but it’s also when Dallas has historically leaned hardest on Dak Prescott and shortened the margin for error. Prescott is quietly leading the league in passing yards, and this offense still has the higher ceiling when forced to trade punches late.

The matchup also isn’t as lopsided as the recent defensive numbers suggest. The Los Angeles Chargers are winning with defense and ball control, but that approach has come at a cost. Justin Herbert is playing behind a battered line and has been forced into a short-area, low-margin passing game, which is why his interception count is creeping toward career highs. Dallas’ defense looks ugly in raw totals, but context matters — they’ve just gone through a gauntlet of elite passing attacks. The Chargers don’t stretch the field the same way, and that compresses the game into a handful of possessions. In a low-scoring, grind-it-out setup, laying less than a field goal with the more explosive offense at home is a bet we’re willing to make.

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