Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

New England +155 over Baltimore

8:20 PM ET. On paper, last week was supposed to be the Patriots’ “prove it” spot, and for one half they absolutely did. New England went toe-to-toe with Buffalo before everything unraveled after halftime, coughing up a 21–0 lead as the Bills lived in the red zone. That game told us two important things. First, the Patriots’ defense is not built to stonewall elite offenses for four quarters. Second — and more importantly for this price — the offense is very real. Even with Buffalo clamping down late, New England moved the ball consistently and continues to profile as a top-five passing attack. If not for a few explosive runs skewing the optics, that game would look a lot closer in the box score than public perception suggests.

Baltimore comes in off a win that looks dominant but functioned more like a glorified walk-through. The Ravens barely had the ball against Cincinnati, and Lamar Jackson was essentially a spectator — 12 pass attempts, two rushes, and very little stress. That’s good news for Baltimore’s health, but it also means the market may be overestimating how sharp this offense actually is right now. Our numbers are close to the opener, so this isn’t a screaming value spot — but at +155, you’re paying for New England’s worst half of football, not its overall profile. In a primetime game where the Patriots can score and Baltimore hasn’t been tested in weeks, this is the kind of number we’re willing to take a swing on.

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