Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Joe Aillet Stadium, Ruston, LA

Stream:ESPN+

Louisiana Tech -13½ -110 over Old Dominion

5:00 PM EST. Start with the only number that matters in this game: 138. That's where Old Dominion's offense ranks in all of FBS, dead last, and it is not a ranking built on bad luck. The Monarchs score 17.7 points a game, they've been held to 17 or fewer in four of their seven, and the high-water mark of the season was 31 points in the opener against FCS Norfolk State. Strip that one out and they've averaged 15.5 a game against real competition. Their only win over an FBS team came at Appalachian State in the middle of a tropical depression, the kind of game where nobody can do anything. Colton Joseph is playing quarterback at Wisconsin now, and whatever was supposed to replace him hasn't shown up. Last Thursday's 23-15 loss to Georgia Southern actually flattered them: they were outgained by 139 yards and nearly doubled up in first downs, 28 to 16.

Louisiana Tech is catching this team at exactly the right time. The Bulldogs have won three straight, and the defense just hung a 24-0 shutout on UL-Monroe, another Sun Belt offense that can't get out of its own way. Blake Baker threw two more touchdown passes in that one, nine on the season, Marcus Calwise went for 116 yards, and tight end Braden Bockler was on the receiving end of the scoring throws. Now Tech comes home to Ruston for Homecoming, rested and rolling, against a visitor that has had two extra days to prepare and still won't be able to score when it gets there. Extra prep time is only worth something if you have something to prepare with.

The against-the-spread record tells you how this usually ends. Old Dominion is 1-6 ATS, and that one cover was the storm game at App State. Throw it out and the Monarchs have missed the number in their other Sun Belt games by an average of 18½ points. That's not a team losing close decisions against the spread. That's a team that physically cannot reach the number because it cannot put points on the board. Louisiana Tech doesn't need 45 here. The Bulldogs need their usual high-20s-to-low-30s home performance, and Old Dominion's ceiling does the rest. This is the first meeting between the two since the Monarchs' 23-20 win in Norfolk back in 2021, and absolutely nothing about that game applies to these two rosters. Lay the two touchdowns with the side that can actually score. 

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