Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Xavier +6½ -110 over Providence

7:30 PM EST Providence has been competitive at home and own one of the higher-scoring offenses in the country at 86.8 points per game, their defensive profile makes it difficult to justify laying this many  points. Providence ranks near the bottom nationally in points allowed, surrendering 84.7 per contest and allowing opponents to shoot over 36% from three. In a matchup featuring two teams with defensive efficiency concerns, asking the Friars to create separation of multiple possessions carries risk.

Xavier’s recent results also suggest a team more competitive than its record indicates. The Musketeers have dropped several close conference games, with six of their last eight losses coming by five points or fewer. That trend highlights their ability to hang around — an important trait when catching nearly a touchdown on the road. Offensively, Xavier averages 78.1 points per game and knocks down 9.6 three-pointers per contest, actually outpacing Providence from deep on a per-game basis. If this turns into a perimeter-oriented game, the Musketeers have the shooting volume to stay within striking distance throughout.

The total sitting at 169.5 further supports the underdog angle. Both teams combine to average slightly fewer points than that number, and opponents’ scoring averages also fall short of it. In what projects as a competitive, back-and-forth contest, the points become a valuable cushion — especially considering Xavier already defeated Providence 97-84 in the first meeting. With Xavier showing resilience in tight games, grabbing the points is the sharper side in a matchup that profiles much closer than the spread suggests.

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