Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Illinois +6½ -110 over Northern Iowa

7:00 PM EST Grabbing the points with the Illinois State Redbirds offers legitimate value in what projects to be a tight MVC battle. Northern Iowa has been excellent defensively, allowing just 61.1 points per game, but that strength is already baked into a spread north of two possessions. Illinois State, meanwhile, owns a +7.9 scoring margin on the season and already proved it can win this matchup, taking the first meeting 59-54. When a team has shown it can dictate tempo and grind out a result against an opponent, getting the points in the rematch becomes attractive — especially in a conference game where familiarity limits surprises.

From a matchup perspective, Illinois State’s offensive profile travels well. The Redbirds average 75.9 points per game and knock down 8.6 threes per contest at a strong 35.3% clip. That perimeter efficiency directly challenges a Northern Iowa defense that prefers to control pace and keep games in the low 60s. While the Northern Iowa Panthers are elite in points allowed per possession, they are also one of the weaker rebounding teams in the country, ranking near the bottom nationally on the glass. Illinois State holds a +4.3 rebounding edge per game, which could translate into second-chance opportunities and prevent the Panthers from fully controlling tempo. Extra possessions are critical for an underdog looking to stay within the number.

The total sitting at 130.5 further strengthens the value of the points. In lower-scoring environments, every possession carries more weight, and spreads of 6–7 points become magnified. Illinois State’s games have averaged nearly 144 total points this season, showing they’re comfortable in faster, more open contests, but even if Northern Iowa successfully slows things down, that style naturally favors the underdog covering. With Illinois State holding a winning ATS record overall and already matching up well in the first meeting, taking the points  provides a cushion in what profiles as a competitive, possession-by-possession conference showdown.

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