Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Sacred Heart -2.5 over Mount St. Mary's

Knott Athletic Recreation Convocation Center – Emmitsburg, MD

7:00 PM ET. If one were to look at this line, they would think that The Mount should be the chalk here, but they are not - the Pioneers are. And yet, the market is piling on the Mountaineers because the trends dictate, they are the play - Heart haven't won on the road yet this season, they are 0-5 outside of Fairfield and when these two teams have met in Emmitsburg, the last three times the Mountaineers were favored and won each of those contests. The line simply doesn't make sense to the naked eye but as we know trends and results don't cash tickets, finding value does.

Heart just got mangled at Penn State, gave up 106 to Central Connecticut State in the Blue Demons barn up in New Britain, and they weren't remotely close to being competitive whether it be at Queens University, Villanova, or Duquesne. The Mount meanwhile beat Howard at home on Black Friday where they covered as a 2.5-point choice. This leads back to the initial question, why are the Pioneers favored here?

We can circumspect as much as we’d like, but we reckon it has something to do with the Mountaineers owning one of the worst scoring defenses in Division I - giving up a 326th ranked 80.9 points per game. The Mount did this playing a 126th ranked strength of schedule while Sacred Heart played the 95th ranked strength of schedule and their defense sits 80 places higher in the Division I rankings with regards to scoring. What does that mean? A JV team can put up points on The Mount.

When a team with that poor of a defensive profile is not favored at home against an 0-5 road opponent, the oddsmakers are making a statement. They are signaling that Sacred Heart has the matchup edge—particularly on the scoring side—and that the market’s fixation on trends is misplaced. The Pioneers did not open as the favorite by mistake. Sacred Heart is favored here because they are going to get their chances to dig in. So will we. We follow the signal and lay the points.   

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