Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

UM-KANSAS CITY +210 ML over Idaho State

UMKC Recreation Center – Kansas City, MO

8:00 PM ET. If you lined this game using basic power metrics, Idaho State should be laying something in the neighborhood of double digits. Instead, the Bengals are a mid-range favorite. That disconnect alone is enough to make us dig deeper.

On the surface, Idaho State looks like the more polished selection. They’re 5–1 against the spread, they are a .500 basketball team, and they just obliterated Cal State Northridge on Thanksgiving by 32 points as a one-point favorite. The Bengals were passing cranberry sauce around in Pocatello before the final whistle blew. That kind of blowout gives a team an immediate stock bump — the kind that the man on the street will tend to chase.

Kansas City brings none of that shine. The Roos have exactly one win and one cover to their name this season. They’ve dropped six straight, all by double figures. The market sees that résumé and wants nothing to do with them. And that is exactly why this number is bizarre — because despite everything that screams “Idaho State” is a bargain, the price truly says Kansas City is very live here.

Oddsmakers are not in the charity business. If Idaho State’s résumé were as meaningful as it looks on paper, this line would reflect it. Instead, we get a subtle invitation to consider the ugly dog. Kansas City’s recent losses came almost exclusively in hostile territory; suddenly they step into a winnable spot against a team coming off its best game of the season where they crushed the number — a classic letdown scenario. We say frequently that we don’t bet teams, we bet the number. And this number suggests UMKC is poised to punch back far harder than perception allows. Roos outright.

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