Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Mississippi State -2.5 over GEORGIA TECH

McCamish Pavilion – Atlanta, GA

9:15 PM ET. Mississippi State hasn’t covered a spread all season — 0–7 ATS — which naturally turns them into a fade magnet here. Yet despite that, the Bulldogs are laying points on the road against a Georgia Tech team with the better record and an undefeated mark in Atlanta. That alone tells you everything you need to know about where the edge really sits.

Georgia Tech is 5–0 at home, riding the optics of early success, and the market could have easily positioned the Jackets as the favorite here without anyone blinking. Instead, oddsmakers hung Mississippi State as the road chalk. That’s intentional. The setup practically invites bettors to grab the home dog at plus money and fade the squad that hasn’t cashed a ticket yet. That type of bait is classic.

We also can’t ignore how Mississippi State’s last outing ended — an overtime collapse against unbeaten SMU after leading by nine late. We were on the Bulldogs in that game, and the sequence was maddening: a missed wide-open dagger, followed by a turnover seconds later. Those kinds of results skew perception, making it appear as though Mississippi State is incapable of finishing games, when in reality they’ve simply been on the wrong side of variance.

Strip away the noise and what you’re left with is a Bulldogs team that has been snake-bitten more than not good, their 3-4 record is a misnomer, and their position as a liability has them now priced at a clear discount. If State had any semblance of profitability or marketability here, they would be laying an even bigger tag than the short number posted presently. This is more than simply “sticking with it”, Mississippi State is the sharp side here and the number tells us that. Bulldogs get it done.

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