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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Arizona -1½ +150 over Kansas City

7:40 PM EST. Zac Gallen (RHP- ARI, 6.34 ERA) is not bringing an attractive ERA into this matchup, but that is exactly why we are getting the type of number we want to attack. His current 6.34 ERA is backed by a 5.8 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9, while his 5.13 xERA suggests the run prevention has been poor without being quite as disastrous as the surface number indicates.

Daniel Lynch (LHP- KC, 7.20 ERA) has an even bigger problem on the other side. He has managed only 5.7 K/9 with a 4.0 BB/9, and his 6.19 xERA remains firmly in the danger zone. Neither starter inspires confidence, but Lynch's combination of limited swing-and-miss and traffic makes Kansas City the pitcher we would rather attack.

Now let us have some fun with the spot. Kansas City is beginning its final road trip of the season, with the finish line sitting directly in front of this club. Nobody is suggesting the Royals will roll over, but this is precisely the type of late-season situation where the intensity and urgency can naturally disappear. Arizona has a much better reason to treat every inning as important, and that difference in mindset is what we are looking to exploit. The Royals have a short stretch ahead before the offseason, while the Diamondbacks are the side we trust to play with considerably more purpose.

The beefed-up run-line number makes this more appealing because we are not pretending Arizona is some overwhelming pitching favorite. We are simply taking the team with the more attractive situation against a starter carrying a 7.20 ERA and a 6.19 xERA. Gallen's numbers are ugly, but he gives us some reason to believe Arizona is not facing the pitcher represented by that ERA alone. This is a price-driven play, and those are exactly the opportunities we like to take late in the season.

Kansas City has one eye on the finish line, while Arizona has every reason to treat this as a game worth taking seriously. We are willing to embrace the ugly pitching matchup because the number compensates us for it. We are trusting the Diamondbacks to win this one by multiple runs. YEA YEA we know "everyone" will be watching NFL tonight.....but keep an eye on baseball!

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