Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Pittsburgh +125 over Chicago

7:40 PM EST. Lake Bachar (RHP- PIT, 3.59 ERA) Bachar has been one of their better run-prevention arms, carrying a 1.08 WHIP with 9.3 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9. His 12.5% swinging-strike rate is particularly appealing because he has the ability to miss bats rather than simply hoping for weak contact. A strong opening spell from Bachar allows Pittsburgh to turn the matchup over to a fresh group of arms rather than exposing one pitcher to Chicago's lineup multiple times.

Davis Martin (RHP- CWS, 4.13 ERA) has a respectable 18.3% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate, but his 4.26 FIP shows that the run-prevention numbers have not been dramatically better underneath the surface. His 1.32 WHIP is also considerably higher than Bachar's 1.08, and that difference matters in a matchup where we are looking for the underdog to create separation. Pittsburgh's advantage is that it can attack this game in pieces, while Chicago has to deal with the same starter for a much longer stretch.

This is the type of bullpen game we are willing to back because Pittsburgh is not simply throwing a collection of random arms at the White Sox. Bachar provides a legitimate strikeout arm at the front of the game, and the Pirates can then mix their relievers according to the matchups rather than asking one starter to navigate the lineup three or four times. The recent results also show the bullpen strategy can work.

The market sees Pittsburgh's bullpen day and naturally wants to push us toward Chicago. That is precisely why we want the Pirates. Bachar's current form gives Pittsburgh a better starting point than the matchup suggests, and the flexibility of the pitching plan can become an advantage as this game moves along.

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