Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Pittsburgh -1½ +155 over Chicago

The Cubs are in a full-blown offensive collapse and now find themselves facing a Pirates starter who has already dominated them once this season. At plus-money on the run line, Pittsburgh offers far more value than the moneyline.

Braxton Ashcraft (RHP - PIT)continues to establish himself as one of the more underrated young arms in the National League. The sophomore right-hander has improved his command, cut down on free passes and continues to do an outstanding job limiting hard contact. Just as importantly, he's been working deeper into games lately, giving Pittsburgh valuable innings while maintaining his effectiveness.

Ashcraft already faced Chicago on April 11 and carved them up for nine strikeouts in five innings. That matchup becomes even more noteworthy when considering how badly the Cubs are swinging the bats right now. Since May 9, Chicago owns a miserable .555 OPS while striking out 25% of the time. This lineup is chasing pitches, failing to make quality contact and struggling to generate any sustained offense.

Ashcraft's swing-and-miss profile matches up perfectly against those weaknesses. Across the 2025 and 2026 seasons at PNC Park, he has produced an outstanding 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings, and the Cubs arrive as one of the most strikeout-prone offenses in baseball over the past several weeks.

Chicago counters withJordan Wicks (LHP - CHC), who was recalled from Triple-A Iowa to replace the injured Edward Cabrera. Wicks posted respectable numbers in his most recent minor-league stint, but his major-league body of work remains concerning. Across 95 career innings, he owns a 5.21 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. Those numbers reflect a pitcher who has struggled to consistently miss bats, struggled to limit traffic on the bases and struggled to work efficiently against major-league lineups.

The Pirates have quietly handledleft-handed pitchingwell at home and should welcome the opportunity to face a pitcher making his first big-league appearance in quite some time. Pittsburgh's lineup has shown much more life than Chicago's lately and should have opportunities against a Cubs bullpen that has been forced to absorb plenty of innings during this losing stretch.

Momentum matters in baseball, especially when one team is playing with confidence and the other is desperately searching for answers. Pittsburgh has the hotter pitcher, the hotter offense and the significantly better current form. The Cubs continue to look like a team pressing at the plate, and until they show signs of breaking out of it, they remain difficult to support.

With Ashcraft in excellent form and Chicago's offense stuck in neutral, the Pirates have a strong chance not only to win but to win comfortably.

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