Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Milwaukee -1½ +135 over St. Louis

The Brewers are quietly turning into one of baseball's elite teams. Outside of the powerhouse Dodgers, Milwaukee has been steamrolling just about everybody in its path. The Brew Crew enters this matchup having won seven of its last ten games and owns a sparkling +71 run differential. Compare that to St. Louis, which sits near Milwaukee in the standings despite carrying a run differential of just -3. The standings suggest these teams are close. The underlying performance suggests otherwise.

Kyle Harrison (LHP - MIL) gets the ball for Milwaukee and continues to trend in the right direction. Harrison has fired 12 consecutive scoreless innings over his last two starts and several of his strikeout indicators have improved significantly this month. The young left-hander appears to be gaining confidence with each outing and now faces a Cardinals lineup that has been wildly inconsistent from game to game. St. Louis has alternated between explosive offensive performances and complete disappearances at the plate, making them difficult to trust against a pitcher currently throwing his best baseball of the season.

The Cardinals counter with Michael McGreevy (RHP - STL), whose surface numbers continue to look far better than his underlying metrics. McGreevy owns a shiny 2.40 ERA but the warning signs are everywhere. His expected ERA sits north of five, he has struck out just 37 batters in 56 innings and he continues to survive despite allowing plenty of contact. Over his last five starts, McGreevy has benefited from an absurd strand rate above 90%, a number that simply isn't sustainable over the long haul. He also carries a .230 BABIP, another indicator that good fortune has played a significant role in keeping runners from crossing the plate.

The concern with McGreevy has always been the lack of a put-away pitch. He throws strikes, keeps the ball on the ground and competes, but when a pitcher misses this few bats, the margin for error becomes razor thin. Eventually those hard-hit balls start finding holes and those stranded runners begin scoring.

That's especially dangerous against a Milwaukee lineup that continues to grind out at-bats and wear down opposing pitching staffs. The Brewers have been particularly effective when seeing a pitcher for the third time through the order, posting a strong .770 OPS in those situations. If McGreevy is forced to navigate the middle innings against this offense, regression could arrive quickly.

Milwaukee has the better lineup, the hotter team, the vastly superior run differential and the pitcher with the more trustworthy underlying profile. The market is still pricing St. Louis as if these teams belong in the same tier. The numbers suggest Milwaukee has separated itself

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer

Bet365 Early Payout – How It Works

Straight Bets:

If the team you back to win goes up by the designated number of points at any time during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full immediately, even if the opposing team later comes back and wins the game.

Parlays & Same Game Parlays:
If a team you’ve selected goes up by the designated number of points that selection will be marked as WON in My Bets. Any remaining legs of the parlay will continue to run as normal.

Once a selection is marked as won under the Early Payout rules, it cannot be reversed, regardless of what happens later in the game.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------