Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Toronto +115 over NY Yankees

7:07 PM EST. This looks like a great spot to grab plus money with Toronto. The market continues to price the Yankees as if their offense can overcome every weakness, but this matchup sets up extremely well for the Blue Jays. Toronto brings one of the toughest lineups in baseball to strike out, while New York sends a pitcher to the mound whose success appears to be built on a foundation that doesn't entirely add up.

Will Warren (RHP - NYY) has recorded an impressive 59 strikeouts in 47 innings, but some of the underlying numbers raise legitimate questions. His swinging-strike rate sits at just 10.3%, which is far lower than what you'd normally expect from a pitcher producing strikeouts at this level. That's a difficult profile to sustain over a full season, especially when facing a lineup that simply refuses to give away at-bats. The Blue Jays have struck out fewer times than any team in Major League Baseball, making them one of the worst possible opponents for a pitcher whose value depends heavily on generating strikeouts. Warren also doesn't generate many ground balls and has battled command issues throughout his professional career. If the strikeouts don't show up, he becomes far more vulnerable.

The Blue Jays counter with Dylan Cease (RHP - TOR), who appears to be finding another gear. Cease has piled up 75 strikeouts in 52 innings and continues to generate elite swing-and-miss numbers with a 15.8% swinging-strike rate. Even more encouraging is his recent form. Over his last five starts, Cease has struck out 43 batters while walking just nine across 31.2 innings. During that stretch he has posted a 2.84 ERA supported by an equally impressive 2.77 expected ERA. Those are the numbers of a pitcher in complete command of his arsenal.

Toronto also matches up well offensively against power pitchers because of its ability to make consistent contact and extend counts. The Blue Jays force opposing starters to work for every out and rarely beat themselves with empty swings. If Warren's strikeout rate regresses toward his underlying metrics, this is exactly the type of opponent capable of exposing it.

Cease gives Toronto a clear edge on the mound, the Blue Jays own one of the most disciplined offensive approaches in baseball, and we're getting a plus price on the better starting pitcher. That's enough for us.

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