Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.
Milwaukee -1½ +135 over Chicago
7:40 PM EST. There is no reason to jump off Milwaukee right now. The Brewers took the opener of this series in convincing fashion and continue to play winning baseball. They own one of the best run differentials in the National League, have been excellent away from home, and are squaring up baseballs from top to bottom. Now they hand the ball to one of the most dominant young arms in baseball.
Jacob Misiorowski (RHP - MIL) has been nothing short of electric. The 6-foot-7 flamethrower brings triple-digit velocity, a devastating swing-and-miss arsenal and improving command every time he takes the mound. Through 51 innings he has piled up 80 strikeouts against just 17 walks while carrying a microscopic 0.90 WHIP. His 20% swinging-strike rate is absurd territory, his 53% ground-ball rate prevents damage when hitters do make contact, and there simply are not many pitchers in baseball capable of matching his combination of velocity and movement. He has not allowed a run this month and enters this start off consecutive dominant outings. Chicago's lineup is ice cold, carrying a .583 OPS since May 9, and several current Cubs hitters have already looked completely overmatched against Misiorowski's repertoire.
Ben Brown (RHP - CHC) is still searching for consistency at the major-league level. Brown possesses quality raw stuff, but the results have rarely matched the tools. Last season he posted a 5.92 ERA while bouncing between the rotation and bullpen, and although underlying indicators suggest some bad luck contributed to those struggles, he remains a pitcher with plenty left to prove. Brown is also being stretched out after beginning the year in relief, increasing his workload from 47 pitches to 65 pitches in his last two appearances. That transition often comes with bumps in the road, especially against a disciplined lineup that makes pitchers work.
Milwaukee is a difficult assignment for a pitcher still trying to establish himself. The Brewers don't strike out much, they grind through at-bats, and they have consistently performed well. Brown may possess upside, but Milwaukee owns significant advantages in starting pitching, current form, bullpen reliability and offensive momentum.
With one of baseball's most dominant young pitchers on the mound and a struggling Cubs offense on the other side, Milwaukee is in an excellent position to win this game comfortably.
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Our Pick
Milwaukee -1½ +135 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.70)