Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Washington +110 over Baltimore

1:35 PM EST. Brandon Young (RHP - BAL) is getting far too much respect from the market because of a misleading 3-1 record and surface-level ERA that masks some glaring underlying concerns. Young went 1-7 with a 6.24 ERA over 58 innings in his first taste of major league action last season and nothing about his long-term profile suggests frontline upside. He’s an older prospect whose game revolves around command and pitchability, but that only works if there’s enough swing-and-miss in the arsenal to escape trouble when traffic builds. Right now, there isn’t. 

Young’s respectable 4.15 ERA this season looks nice at first glance, but the supporting metrics paint a much different picture. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP sits at an extremely fortunate .259, a number that usually screams regression for contact-heavy pitchers. The strikeout-to-walk profile is also shaky with just 19 strikeouts against 11 walks in 26 innings. That’s not dominance. That’s survival. His expected ERA sits north of 5.30, and over his last four starts it climbs even higher to 5.67. The Orioles continue winning games around him, but individually, Young’s profile resembles a back-end innings eater far more than a road favorite deserving this kind of market respect.

Miles Mikolas (RHP - WSH) is no longer the pitcher he once was, but unlike Young, Mikolas actually appears to be adapting. He’s figured out that overpowering hitters is no longer the path, so he’s leaning heavily into contact management and ground balls, and it’s working. Mikolas owns a strong 52% ground-ball rate overall and an elite 65% mark over his last five starts. During that stretch, he’s posted a 3.54 ERA backed almost identically by a 3.48 expected ERA, suggesting the performance has been legitimate

The record doesn’t reflect how well Mikolas has actually pitched because Washington hasn’t provided much support, but the veteran right-hander has quietly stabilized games and avoided the big innings that destroy vulnerable starters. That becomes especially valuable against a Baltimore lineup that can become homer-reliant offensively. Ground-ball pitchers tend to neutralize that type of attack far better than fly-ball arms with shaky command.

Washington is also playing better baseball right now than the public perception suggests, while Baltimore continues getting priced like an elite team regardless of the pitching matchup. That disconnect creates value. Mikolas may not have premium stuff anymore, but he’s the more experienced and currently more trustworthy arm in this matchup, and the Nationals being an underdog here is completely backwards.

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