Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

St. Louis -1½ +185 over Athletics

9:40 PM EST. Jeffrey Springs (LHP, Athletics) is one of those pitchers that people still want to believe in because of what he once was, but the current version is nowhere near that level. Yes, it’s nice to finally see him stay healthy for an extended stretch, but the durability spike has come with a major decline in stuff. The swing-and-miss ability has evaporated, the fastball now sits around 90 mph, and the underlying numbers suggest more trouble ahead.

Springs has issued just 12 walks over 44 innings, so the control has been respectable, but everything else points the wrong way. His swing-and-miss rate sits at just 10%, his ground-ball rate is a weak 35%, and his expected ERA checks in at 4.62. Chasing a repeat of his magical 2022 season is fool’s gold. That pitcher is gone.

What’s even more important here is the environment.

We are now treating the Athletics’ home park like Coors Field. Totals are routinely sitting at 10 or higher, runs are coming in bunches, and games there have become extremely volatile. When teams win in that park, they often win by a margin. That makes the reverse run line especially attractive at these prices. 

Andre Pallante (RHP, St. Louis) has numbers very similar to Springs, which is exactly why we are placing almost no emphasis on the starting pitching matchup. Pallante’s profile is hardly dominant either, but that’s not the handicap.

The handicap is the park, the volatility, the inflated scoring environment, and the value attached to an underdog run line in a stadium where crooked numbers show up all night long.

We use this exact approach frequently in Colorado, and now we’re applying it here.

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