Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Calgary -½ +128 over Anaheim

regulation only

8:00 PM EST. This bet starts on the schedule page, because Anaheim is walking into the Saddledome on fumes. The Ducks played last night in Edmonton, with Laurent Brossoit in net, then got on a plane and flew into Calgary to face a Flames team that has been sitting at home resting since Wednesday. That is the whole ballgame in November hockey. Tired legs, short bench, second night of a back to back in a loud road barn against a structured home team that rolls four lines and leans on you for 60 minutes. And regulation only suits Calgary just fine here, because a rested team with the better legs does its damage late, and the third period of a back to back is where road teams go to die. The Flames do not need overtime to prove a point tonight. They need 60 minutes of exactly the hockey they have been playing, 6 wins in their last 10, while Anaheim has been wobbling along at 3, 6 and 1 over the same stretch.

Then there is the penalty problem, and for Anaheim it is a full blown lifestyle. The Ducks take more penalties than anybody in hockey, 13.7 minutes a game in the box, and tonight that habit runs head first into the fifth best power play in the league. Calgary is clicking at 29.7 percent with the man advantage, with Farabee dealing, Coronato finishing and Zayne Parekh walking the blue line, and Anaheim kills penalties at a leaky 74.6 percent. Worse, the Ducks are short handed before the puck even drops. Troy Terry is out with the hip. Ryan Poehling is out. Ian Moore is out. A.J. Greer is out. That is scoring, depth and snarl all sitting in the press box while the kids, Sennecke, Gauthier and Carlsson, get asked to carry a tired team on the road in a division game. Good luck with that, boys.

The crease tells the same story. Anaheim's goaltending has been a raffle all season, a team save percentage of .859 that ranks 31st, with Lukas Dostal down at .853 and Ville Husso, the expected starter tonight, getting the nod only because Brossoit worked last night. Calgary's net, whether it is Dustin Wolf or Devin Cooley at .899, has simply been the steadier address, and the Flames protect it with the ninth best penalty kill in hockey at 84.0 percent. Calgary also gives up fewer goals a night than this Anaheim team does, 3.4 against 3.7, and in a game where the favourite's edge is legs, discipline and special teams, that gap is where regulation wins live. The Ducks will spend the night chasing, parading to the box and watching the home power play go to work in front of a Friday night crowd that smells blood.

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