Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Calgary +117 over Seattle 

10:00 PM EST. The Flames opened the season 0-5-0, and that start branded them in the market's mind as a weak hockey team. Win-loss records in hockey are the most misleading of any of the four major sports, and Calgary is the proof of it. Since that start they have won seven of t0, yet here they are still priced like a bottom-feeder, a plus-money dog on the road against an 8-5 Seattle team. The market has not caught up to what this visitor actually is.

The underlying numbers say the two records are backwards. Calgary ranks 12th in the league in five-on-five shot-attempt share, which is just a fancy way of saying they seldom get outplayed. Seattle ranks dead last, 32nd. It is the same story in expected goals, where Calgary sits in the top third and Seattle sits near the bottom, and the same again in offensive-zone time, where Calgary ranks 14th and Seattle 29th. One team spends its nights with the puck in the other end. The other team spends its nights chasing it.

So why does Seattle have the better record? Finishing, and finishing is the least sticky thing in this sport. Seattle ranks first in the league in high-danger finishing while Calgary ranks last, and that single gap explains everything: Calgary is tied for last in actual goals share while Seattle sits near the top, even though Calgary controls play and Seattle does not. That is not a talent gap, it is a luck gap, and luck gaps close. Seattle's 8-5 record is built on burying chances at a rate no team sustains, and Calgary's 7-8 record is weighed down by the exact opposite. At +116 we are getting paid to bet the team that controls the puck against the team that is just finishing its chances for now. We already cashed Calgary once this week at a plus price, and there is no reason to come off them now. 

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